Telavi
vs
Sioni
Garuda Lions Prediction: Telavi
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.88.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Telavi is the favourite, not a value bet.
Telavi vs Sioni overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Telavi vs Sioni
| Probability | Telavi | Draw | Sioni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.9% | 29.3% | 21.8% |
| Market | 54.1% | 25.8% | 20.1% |
| Final | 52.8% | 26.7% | 20.5% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +0.9% | +0.4% |
Why Telavi
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.88.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.2% per unit staked (our 52.8% × 1.72 − 1).
Telavi vs Sioni match preview
Telavi will face Sioni in the Erovnuli Liga 2, with Telavi holding a 53% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 13% chance of occurring. In terms of expected goals, Telavi is projected to score 1.44, while Sioni is expected to net 0.88. Recent form shows Telavi with mixed results, recording one win and two draws in their last five matches, while Sioni has struggled, with only one win in their last six outings.
Historically, the head-to-head record favors Telavi, who have secured three wins against Sioni's two in their last seven encounters, with two matches ending in a draw. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 41%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 46%, indicating a potentially competitive match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Telavi and Sioni expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.33
Telavi and Sioni attack and defence ratings
Telavi
Sioni
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Telavi vs Sioni markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Telavi | 52.8% | 1.89 | -1.3% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Telavi | 52.8% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Sioni | 20.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.1% |
| No | 53.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Telavi win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 51.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 12.8% | |
| 0-0 | 11.0% |
Telavi vs Sioni stats
Telavi and Sioni recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Telavi and Sioni season so far
Telavi record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sioni record
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Telavi vs Sioni head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Sioni | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Telavi | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Sioni | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 3-0 |
| 2022-10-09 | Telavi | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga | 0-0 |
| 2022-07-02 | Sioni | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga | 0-0 |
| 2022-05-03 | Telavi | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga | 2-0 |
| 2022-03-05 | Sioni | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Telavi vs Sioni odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.1%, draw 25.8%, away 20.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 3.50 | 4.53 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.45 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 3.55 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .