Municipal
vs
Aurora
Garuda Lions Prediction: Municipal
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.80.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Municipal vs Aurora overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Municipal vs Aurora
| Probability | Municipal | Draw | Aurora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.3% | 26.7% | 17.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 56.3% | 26.7% | 17.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Municipal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.80.
Municipal vs Aurora match preview
Municipal faces Aurora in the Guatemala Liga Nacional with a probability of winning set at 56% for Municipal, compared to 17% for Aurora, and a 27% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 13%. Expected goals for Municipal stand at 1.65, while Aurora is projected at 0.81, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Municipal has struggled with a record of L-W-L-D-D-L, while Aurora has shown better consistency with L-W-D-W-W-W. The head-to-head record in the last five encounters favors Municipal, who have secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 win for Aurora. The model suggests a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Municipal and Aurora expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Municipal and Aurora attack and defence ratings
Municipal
Aurora
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 19 fixtures
Before and after this match
Municipal vs Aurora markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal | 56.3% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Aurora | 17.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.8% |
| No | 54.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal win | 31.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-1 | 12.6% | |
| 2-0 | 11.7% |
Municipal vs Aurora stats
Municipal and Aurora recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Municipal and Aurora season so far
Municipal record
- They have won 8 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Aurora record
- They have won 8 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Municipal vs Aurora head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Aurora | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Municipal | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 4-1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Aurora | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Aurora | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Municipal | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.