Cobán Imperial
vs
Xelajú
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cobán Imperial
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.06.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cobán Imperial is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú
| Probability | Cobán Imperial | Draw | Xelajú |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.8% | 26.1% | 22.1% |
| Market | 43.9% | 29.0% | 27.1% |
| Final | 45.9% | 28.2% | 25.8% |
| Edge | +2.0% | -0.7% | -1.3% |
Why Cobán Imperial
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.2% per unit staked (our 45.9% × 2.13 − 1).
Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú match preview
Cobán Imperial faces Xelajú in a matchup where the probabilities favor Cobán Imperial at 57% to win, with a 24% chance of a draw and Xelajú at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a frequency of 10%. Both teams have a 56% likelihood of scoring, and the expected goals are 1.92 for Cobán Imperial compared to 1.03 for Xelajú.
In terms of recent form, Cobán Imperial has recorded three wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches, while Xelajú has two wins, three losses, and one draw in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows Cobán Imperial with three wins, Xelajú with four wins, and three draws, indicating a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cobán Imperial and Xelajú expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.77
Cobán Imperial and Xelajú attack and defence ratings
Cobán Imperial
Xelajú
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 19 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cobán Imperial | 45.9% | 2.18 | +2.0% | 2.13 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cobán Imperial | 45.9% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Xelajú | 25.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cobán Imperial win | 29.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 48.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 9.6% |
Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú stats
Cobán Imperial and Xelajú recent form
| Cobán Imperial |
WWWLWL |
| Xelajú |
WDWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cobán Imperial and Xelajú season so far
Cobán Imperial record
- They have won 6 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 17 matches.
Xelajú record
- They have won 7 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 17 matches.
Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Xelajú | Cobán Imperial | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Xelajú | Cobán Imperial | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Cobán Imperial | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Xelajú | Cobán Imperial | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Cobán Imperial | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-25 | Xelajú | Cobán Imperial | Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Cobán Imperial | Xelajú | Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2024-12-22 | Xelajú | Cobán Imperial | Liga Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2024-12-14 | Cobán Imperial | Xelajú | Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Cobán Imperial | Xelajú | Liga Nacional | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.9%, draw 29.0%, away 27.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.12 | 3.33 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.15 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.13 | 3.15 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.12 | 3.24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 3.15 | 3.42 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.30 |