Xelajú
vs
Guastatoya
Garuda Lions Prediction: Xelajú
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.71.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Xelajú is the favourite, not a value bet.
Xelajú vs Guastatoya overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Xelajú vs Guastatoya
| Probability | Xelajú | Draw | Guastatoya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.7% | 24.3% | 13.1% |
| Market | 61.2% | 23.6% | 15.2% |
| Final | 61.6% | 23.8% | 14.6% |
| Edge | +0.4% | +0.2% | -0.5% |
Why Xelajú
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.8% per unit staked (our 61.6% × 1.53 − 1).
Xelajú vs Guastatoya match preview
Xelajú enters the match against Guastatoya with a strong probability of winning at 63%, while Guastatoya's chances stand at 13%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.81 for Xelajú and 0.71 for Guastatoya. Recent form shows Xelajú with three wins in their last five matches, while Guastatoya has struggled, recording only one win in their last six outings.
In their last ten encounters, Xelajú has secured four wins, with four matches ending in draws and Guastatoya winning twice. The model suggests a 46% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance that both teams will score. Despite the favorable statistics for Xelajú, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Xelajú and Guastatoya expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Xelajú and Guastatoya attack and defence ratings
Xelajú
Guastatoya
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 20 fixtures
Before and after this match
Xelajú vs Guastatoya markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 61.6% | 1.62 | +0.4% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Xelajú win | 37.6% | 2.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 61.6% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Guastatoya | 14.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.7% |
| No | 56.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Xelajú win | 37.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 37.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.5% |
| 2-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-1 | 11.4% |
Xelajú vs Guastatoya stats
Xelajú and Guastatoya recent form
| Xelajú |
WWDWLW |
| Guastatoya |
WLDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Xelajú and Guastatoya season so far
Xelajú record
- They have won 9 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 19 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guastatoya record
- They have won 9 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Xelajú vs Guastatoya head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Guastatoya | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Xelajú | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Guastatoya | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Guastatoya | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-18 | Xelajú | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 5-0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Guastatoya | Xelajú | Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-09 | Xelajú | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-15 | Guastatoya | Xelajú | Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-17 | Guastatoya | Xelajú | Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Xelajú | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Xelajú vs Guastatoya odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.2%, draw 23.6%, away 15.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.44 | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 3.80 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.52 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.43 | 3.80 | 6.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 3.94 | 6.16 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.60 | 6.00 |