Aurora
vs
Mixco
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aurora
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.13.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Aurora vs Mixco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aurora vs Mixco
| Probability | Aurora | Draw | Mixco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.9% | 21.0% | 17.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.9% | 21.0% | 17.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Aurora
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Aurora vs Mixco match preview
Aurora faces Mixco in the Guatemala Liga Nacional with a strong probability of victory for the home side at 62%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Aurora's expected goals stand at 2.26, while Mixco's is considerably lower at 1.13. The model also suggests a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood of both teams scoring.
In terms of recent form, Aurora has recorded three wins in their last five matches, while Mixco has managed two wins in their last six. Historically, the last ten encounters show a competitive balance, with Aurora securing 2 wins, Mixco 4 wins, and 4 matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aurora and Mixco expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.39
Aurora and Mixco attack and defence ratings
Aurora
Mixco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Aurora vs Mixco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 61.9% |
| Draw | 21.0% | |
| Mixco | 17.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% |
| No | 38.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win | 40.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 38.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
Aurora vs Mixco stats
Aurora and Mixco recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aurora and Mixco season so far
Aurora record
- They have won 8 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mixco record
- They have won 7 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 18 matches.
Aurora vs Mixco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Mixco | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Mixco | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 4-0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Aurora | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Aurora | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Mixco | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2022-03-19 | Aurora | Mixco | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2022-02-03 | Mixco | Aurora | Primera Division | 1-0 |
| 2021-09-18 | Mixco | Aurora | Primera Division | 0-0 |
| 2021-07-31 | Aurora | Mixco | Primera Division | 1-0 |
| 2020-12-05 | Mixco | Aurora | Primera Division | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.