Xelajú
vs
Marquense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Xelajú
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.69.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Xelajú vs Marquense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Xelajú vs Marquense
| Probability | Xelajú | Draw | Marquense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.5% | 26.9% | 14.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 58.5% | 26.9% | 14.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Xelajú
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Xelajú vs Marquense match preview
Xelajú enters the match against Marquense with a probability of 58% to win, while Marquense has a 15% chance of victory, according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Xelajú, with an expected goals tally of 1.61 for Xelajú and 0.69 for Marquense. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with Xelajú recording two wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Marquense has two wins and three draws in their recent outings.
In their last ten encounters, Xelajú has secured five wins compared to Marquense's three, indicating a competitive rivalry. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 40%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 41%. Despite the favorable statistics for Xelajú, the confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a level of uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Xelajú and Marquense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.29
Xelajú and Marquense attack and defence ratings
Xelajú
Marquense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 18 fixtures
Before and after this match
Xelajú vs Marquense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 58.5% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Marquense | 14.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.8% |
| No | 59.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Xelajú win | 32.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 41.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.1% |
| 2-0 | 13.0% | |
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
Xelajú vs Marquense stats
Xelajú and Marquense recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Xelajú and Marquense season so far
Xelajú record
- They have won 7 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 16 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 16 matches.
Marquense record
- They have won 7 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 16 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 16 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Xelajú vs Marquense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Marquense | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Xelajú | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Marquense | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Marquense | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Xelajú | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 4-2 |
| 2025-11-06 | Marquense | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Xelajú | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-21 | Marquense | Xelajú | Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-17 | Xelajú | Marquense | Liga Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-20 | Marquense | Xelajú | Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.