Marquense
vs
Guastatoya
Garuda Lions Prediction: Marquense
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.77.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Marquense vs Guastatoya overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Marquense vs Guastatoya
| Probability | Marquense | Draw | Guastatoya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.7% | 25.4% | 15.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 59.7% | 25.4% | 15.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Marquense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Marquense vs Guastatoya match preview
Marquense is set to face Guastatoya in their upcoming match, with a probability of 53% for a Marquense win, while a draw stands at 29% and Guastatoya at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 14%. Marquense has an expected goals figure of 1.50, compared to Guastatoya's 0.78, indicating a stronger attacking performance anticipated from Marquense.
In terms of recent form, Marquense has recorded a sequence of W-D-D-W-W-L, whereas Guastatoya's recent matches show D-D-L-W-W-W. The head-to-head record over the last five encounters favors Guastatoya, who has secured 3 wins, while Marquense has won once and the teams have drawn once. The confidence grade for this match stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Marquense and Guastatoya expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Marquense and Guastatoya attack and defence ratings
Marquense
Guastatoya
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 17 fixtures
Before and after this match
Marquense vs Guastatoya markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marquense | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marquense | 59.7% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Guastatoya | 15.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.2% |
| No | 54.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marquense win | 34.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 40.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.1% |
| 2-0 | 12.4% | |
| 1-1 | 11.9% |
Marquense vs Guastatoya stats
Marquense and Guastatoya recent form
| Marquense |
WDDWWL |
| Guastatoya |
LDDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Marquense and Guastatoya season so far
Marquense record
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Guastatoya record
- They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marquense vs Guastatoya head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Guastatoya | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Guastatoya | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 4-0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Marquense | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Guastatoya | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 5-0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Marquense | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.