Guastatoya
vs
Mixco
Garuda Lions Prediction: Guastatoya
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Guastatoya vs Mixco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guastatoya vs Mixco
| Probability | Guastatoya | Draw | Mixco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.8% | 20.1% | 14.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 65.8% | 20.1% | 14.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Guastatoya
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Guastatoya vs Mixco match preview
Guastatoya enters the match against Mixco with a strong probability of winning at 66%, while Mixco stands at 14%. The expected goals for Guastatoya are 2.31, significantly higher than Mixco's 1.00, suggesting a dominant performance is anticipated. Recent form shows Guastatoya has been on a winning streak, with four wins in their last five matches, while Mixco has had mixed results, including two draws and a loss in their last three outings.
In terms of scoring, the most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurrence. Additionally, there is a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance that both teams will score. Historically, Guastatoya has won two of their last five encounters against Mixco, who has secured three victories in the same period.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Guastatoya and Mixco expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.32
Guastatoya and Mixco attack and defence ratings
Guastatoya
Mixco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Guastatoya vs Mixco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guastatoya | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Guastatoya win | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guastatoya | 65.8% |
| Draw | 20.1% | |
| Mixco | 14.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% |
| No | 42.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guastatoya win | 43.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 34.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-0 | 9.7% | |
| 1-1 | 9.3% |
Guastatoya vs Mixco stats
Guastatoya and Mixco recent form
| Guastatoya |
DLWWWW |
| Mixco |
DDWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Guastatoya and Mixco season so far
Guastatoya record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mixco record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
Guastatoya vs Mixco head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Mixco | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 4-2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Mixco | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Guastatoya | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Guastatoya | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Mixco | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.