Municipal
vs
Guastatoya
Garuda Lions Prediction: Municipal
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Municipal vs Guastatoya overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Municipal vs Guastatoya
| Probability | Municipal | Draw | Guastatoya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.5% | 23.5% | 12.0% |
| Market | 65.0% | 22.2% | 12.8% |
| Final | 64.9% | 22.5% | 12.6% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +1.3% | -0.8% |
Why Municipal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.68.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Municipal vs Guastatoya match preview
Municipal enters the match against Guastatoya with a strong probability of winning at 65%. Their recent form shows a mixed bag with two draws and one win in the last five matches, while Guastatoya has been more consistent, winning four of their last six. The expected goals for Municipal stand at 1.86, significantly higher than Guastatoya's 0.68, indicating a potential advantage in offensive capability.
Historically, Municipal has dominated this fixture, recording eight wins and only one loss in the last ten encounters against Guastatoya. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 14% probability. With a confidence grade of C, this matchup presents an intriguing contest between the two teams.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Municipal and Guastatoya expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Municipal and Guastatoya attack and defence ratings
Municipal
Guastatoya
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Municipal vs Guastatoya markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal | 64.9% | 1.54 | -0.4% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.4% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal win | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal | 64.9% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Guastatoya | 12.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.8% |
| No | 57.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal win | 39.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 35.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.6% |
| 2-0 | 13.6% | |
| 1-1 | 11.0% |
Municipal vs Guastatoya stats
Municipal and Guastatoya recent form
| Municipal |
LDDWDW |
| Guastatoya |
DLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Municipal and Guastatoya season so far
Municipal record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Guastatoya record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Municipal vs Guastatoya head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Guastatoya | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Municipal | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Guastatoya | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Guastatoya | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Municipal | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Municipal | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Guastatoya | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-3 |
| 2025-04-17 | Municipal | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-12 | Guastatoya | Municipal | Liga Nacional | 0-2 |
| 2024-10-24 | Guastatoya | Municipal | Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Municipal vs Guastatoya odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.0%, draw 22.2%, away 12.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 4.10 | 7.08 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.10 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .