Marquense
vs
Suchitepéquez
Garuda Lions Prediction: Marquense
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Marquense vs Suchitepéquez overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Marquense vs Suchitepéquez
| Probability | Marquense | Draw | Suchitepéquez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.7% | 19.3% | 9.9% |
| Market | 64.1% | 23.0% | 12.8% |
| Final | 65.8% | 22.1% | 12.1% |
| Edge | +6.6% | -3.7% | -2.9% |
Why Marquense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Marquense below the model: +6.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Marquense vs Suchitepéquez match preview
Marquense enters the match against Suchitepéquez with a strong probability of winning at 66%, while Suchitepéquez has a lower chance of 12%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 13% likelihood. Marquense's expected goals stand at 2.24, indicating a solid offensive performance, whereas Suchitepéquez is projected to score only 0.74 goals.
In terms of recent form, Marquense has recorded two wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Suchitepéquez has struggled, with only one draw and five losses in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record shows Marquense with five wins and Suchitepéquez with four wins over their last ten encounters, suggesting a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Marquense and Suchitepéquez expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Marquense and Suchitepéquez attack and defence ratings
Marquense
Suchitepéquez
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Marquense vs Suchitepéquez markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marquense | 65.8% | 1.52 | +6.6% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.9% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Marquense win | 47.8% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marquense | 65.8% |
| Draw | 22.1% | |
| Suchitepéquez | 12.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.5% |
| No | 52.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marquense win | 47.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 29.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.8% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | |
| 3-0 | 9.5% |
Marquense vs Suchitepéquez stats
Marquense and Suchitepéquez recent form
| Marquense |
DDWWLD |
| Suchitepéquez |
DDLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Marquense and Suchitepéquez season so far
Marquense record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Suchitepéquez record
- They have won 1 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
Marquense vs Suchitepéquez head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Suchitepéquez | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-19 | Suchitepéquez | Marquense | Primera Division | 3-2 |
| 2024-05-13 | Marquense | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-07 | Marquense | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division | 3-0 |
| 2024-01-22 | Suchitepéquez | Marquense | Primera Division | 2-0 |
| 2023-11-08 | Marquense | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-14 | Suchitepéquez | Marquense | Primera Division | 2-1 |
| 2023-03-19 | Marquense | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division | 3-3 |
| 2023-01-22 | Suchitepéquez | Marquense | Primera Division | 3-0 |
| 2022-10-06 | Marquense | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Marquense vs Suchitepéquez odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.1%, draw 23.0%, away 12.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.39 | 3.84 | 7.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 3.90 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 3.84 | 7.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.42 | 4.27 | 6.51 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 3.90 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .