Suchitepéquez
vs
Aurora
Garuda Lions Prediction: Suchitepéquez
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Suchitepéquez is the favourite, not a value bet.
Suchitepéquez vs Aurora overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Suchitepéquez vs Aurora
| Probability | Suchitepéquez | Draw | Aurora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.8% | 23.8% | 36.4% |
| Market | 49.6% | 27.2% | 23.2% |
| Final | 47.1% | 26.4% | 26.5% |
| Edge | -2.5% | -0.8% | +3.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.8% per unit staked (our 47.1% × 1.87 − 1).
Suchitepéquez vs Aurora match preview
Suchitepéquez faces Aurora in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a close contest. Suchitepéquez has a 40% chance of winning, while Aurora stands at 36%, and a draw is estimated at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Suchitepéquez, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, with a 70% chance of both teams scoring and a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Recent form shows Suchitepéquez struggling with three losses and two draws in their last five matches, while Aurora has been more successful, winning three of their last five. The expected goals suggest a competitive game, with Suchitepéquez projected at 1.82 and Aurora at 1.74. In their last encounter, Aurora emerged victorious, having won their only recent head-to-head match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Suchitepéquez and Aurora expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.56
Suchitepéquez and Aurora attack and defence ratings
Suchitepéquez
Aurora
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Suchitepéquez vs Aurora markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suchitepéquez | 47.1% | 2.12 | -2.5% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suchitepéquez | 47.1% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Aurora | 26.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.0% |
| No | 30.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Suchitepéquez win | 21.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 60.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Suchitepéquez vs Aurora stats
Suchitepéquez and Aurora recent form
| Suchitepéquez |
LDDLLD |
| Aurora |
WWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Suchitepéquez and Aurora season so far
Suchitepéquez record
- They have won 1 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 15 matches.
Aurora record
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Suchitepéquez vs Aurora head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Aurora | Suchitepéquez | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-2 |
| 2024-05-06 | Suchitepéquez | Aurora | Primera Division | 3-1 |
| 2024-05-02 | Aurora | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-19 | Suchitepéquez | Aurora | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-16 | Aurora | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2023-05-14 | Suchitepéquez | Aurora | Primera Division | 2-0 |
| 2023-05-11 | Aurora | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division | 2-1 |
| 2022-10-30 | Aurora | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division | 3-2 |
| 2022-10-27 | Suchitepéquez | Aurora | Primera Division | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Suchitepéquez vs Aurora odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.6%, draw 27.2%, away 23.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.36 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.35 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.84 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.36 | 3.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.32 | 4.01 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .