Xelajú
vs
Municipal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Xelajú
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Xelajú vs Municipal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Xelajú vs Municipal
| Probability | Xelajú | Draw | Municipal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.3% | 25.6% | 20.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.3% | 25.6% | 20.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Xelajú
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Xelajú vs Municipal match preview
Xelajú hosts Municipal in what promises to be a competitive match in the Guatemala Liga Nacional. According to our model, Xelajú has a 54% probability of winning, while Municipal stands at 20%. The expected goals for Xelajú is 1.76, compared to Municipal's 0.99, indicating a potential advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Xelajú has recorded three wins in their last five matches, while Municipal has two wins in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record shows Xelajú with one win, one draw, and Municipal with four wins in their last six encounters. Both teams have a 53% chance of scoring, suggesting a closely contested match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Xelajú and Municipal expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Xelajú and Municipal attack and defence ratings
Xelajú
Municipal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Xelajú vs Municipal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 54.3% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Municipal | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% |
| No | 46.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Xelajú win | 31.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 45.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
Xelajú vs Municipal stats
Xelajú and Municipal recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Xelajú and Municipal season so far
Xelajú record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
Municipal record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Xelajú vs Municipal head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Municipal | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Xelajú | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Municipal | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 4-1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Xelajú | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2026-01-29 | Municipal | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Municipal | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.