Mixco
vs
Xelajú
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mixco
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.13.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mixco vs Xelajú overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mixco vs Xelajú
| Probability | Mixco | Draw | Xelajú |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.2% | 20.9% | 16.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 62.2% | 20.9% | 16.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mixco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.13.
Mixco vs Xelajú match preview
Mixco is favored to win against Xelajú with a 61% probability, while a draw stands at 21% and Xelajú at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Mixco are 2.26 compared to Xelajú's 1.19, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from Mixco.
In terms of recent form, Mixco has recorded draws and a win in their last five matches, while Xelajú has alternated between wins and losses. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Mixco has won 3 times, with Xelajú winning 4 times and 3 matches ending in draws. The model suggests a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 63%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mixco and Xelajú expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Mixco and Xelajú attack and defence ratings
Mixco
Xelajú
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 17 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mixco vs Xelajú markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mixco | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Mixco win | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mixco | 62.2% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Xelajú | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% |
| No | 38.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mixco win | 40.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 37.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
Mixco vs Xelajú stats
Mixco and Xelajú recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mixco and Xelajú season so far
Mixco record
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
Xelajú record
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
Mixco vs Xelajú head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Xelajú | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 4-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Mixco | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-23 | Xelajú | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Xelajú | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-09 | Mixco | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-10 | Xelajú | Mixco | Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-05 | Mixco | Xelajú | Liga Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2024-12-02 | Xelajú | Mixco | Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-28 | Mixco | Xelajú | Liga Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-24 | Xelajú | Mixco | Liga Nacional | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.