Malacateco
vs
Aurora
Garuda Lions Prediction: Malacateco
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.07.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Malacateco vs Aurora overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Malacateco vs Aurora
| Probability | Malacateco | Draw | Aurora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.3% | 26.6% | 23.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 50.3% | 26.6% | 23.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Malacateco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.07.
Malacateco vs Aurora match preview
Malacateco faces Aurora in an upcoming match in the Guatemala Liga Nacional, with our model giving Malacateco a 50% chance of winning, while Aurora has a 23% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Malacateco, with an expected goals tally of 1.67 for Malacateco and 1.06 for Aurora. Recent form shows Malacateco with two wins in their last six matches, while Aurora has won four of their last six.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, there is a 51% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 54% chance that both teams will find the net. The head-to-head record over the last seven encounters favors Aurora, who have secured four wins compared to Malacateco's two victories and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Malacateco and Aurora expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.73
Malacateco and Aurora attack and defence ratings
Malacateco
Aurora
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 17 fixtures
Before and after this match
Malacateco vs Aurora markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malacateco | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malacateco | 50.3% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Aurora | 23.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% |
| No | 45.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Malacateco win | 27.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
Malacateco vs Aurora stats
Malacateco and Aurora recent form
| Malacateco |
WLWLLW |
| Aurora |
WWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Malacateco and Aurora season so far
Malacateco record
- They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aurora record
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malacateco vs Aurora head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Aurora | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Malacateco | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Aurora | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Aurora | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Malacateco | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Malacateco | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Aurora | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.