Suchitepéquez
vs
Malacateco
Garuda Lions Prediction: Suchitepéquez
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco
| Probability | Suchitepéquez | Draw | Malacateco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.7% | 25.8% | 24.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.7% | 25.8% | 24.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Suchitepéquez
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.18.
Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco match preview
Suchitepéquez faces Malacateco in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a slight edge for the home side, with Suchitepéquez at 47% to win compared to Malacateco's 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Suchitepéquez, with an expected goals tally of 1.73 for Suchitepéquez and 1.27 for Malacateco.
Recent form shows Suchitepéquez struggling with a record of D-L-D-D-L-L, while Malacateco has a mixed form of D-W-L-W-L-L. The head-to-head results over the last ten encounters indicate a balanced rivalry, with both teams securing four wins each and two matches ending in draws. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 58%, and both teams scoring is projected at 60%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Suchitepéquez and Malacateco expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Suchitepéquez and Malacateco attack and defence ratings
Suchitepéquez
Malacateco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 18 fixtures
Before and after this match
Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suchitepéquez | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suchitepéquez | 49.7% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Malacateco | 24.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Suchitepéquez win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 50.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco stats
Suchitepéquez and Malacateco recent form
| Suchitepéquez |
LDLDDL |
| Malacateco |
LDWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Suchitepéquez and Malacateco season so far
Suchitepéquez record
- They have won 1 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 16 matches.
Malacateco record
- They have won 5 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 16 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 16 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Malacateco | Suchitepéquez | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2018-04-04 | Suchitepéquez | Malacateco | Liga Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2018-02-04 | Malacateco | Suchitepéquez | Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2017-10-01 | Suchitepéquez | Malacateco | Liga Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2017-07-30 | Malacateco | Suchitepéquez | Liga Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2017-03-19 | Suchitepéquez | Malacateco | Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2017-01-22 | Malacateco | Suchitepéquez | Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2016-11-27 | Suchitepéquez | Malacateco | Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2016-09-21 | Malacateco | Suchitepéquez | Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2016-05-22 | Suchitepéquez | Malacateco | Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.