Antigua GFC
vs
Malacateco
Garuda Lions Prediction: Antigua GFC
2 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.59.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Antigua GFC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Antigua GFC vs Malacateco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Antigua GFC vs Malacateco
| Probability | Antigua GFC | Draw | Malacateco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.6% | 22.6% | 9.9% |
| Market | 66.7% | 21.5% | 11.8% |
| Final | 66.9% | 21.8% | 11.3% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +0.3% | -0.5% |
Why Antigua GFC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.59.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (our 66.9% × 1.40 − 1).
Antigua GFC vs Malacateco match preview
Antigua GFC enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 67%, reflecting their recent form of two consecutive victories and only one loss in their last five matches. Their expected goals stand at 1.88, indicating a solid offensive capability, while Malacateco, with an expected goals figure of 0.59, has struggled offensively, particularly given their recent form of two losses and a draw in their last five matches.
In head-to-head encounters, Antigua GFC has the upper hand, recording five wins, three draws, and two losses against Malacateco in their last ten meetings. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Antigua GFC, with a 15% probability. Additionally, there is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Antigua GFC and Malacateco expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
Antigua GFC and Malacateco attack and defence ratings
Antigua GFC
Malacateco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 19 fixtures
Before and after this match
Antigua GFC vs Malacateco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antigua GFC | 66.9% | 1.49 | +0.2% | 1.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.7% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Antigua GFC win | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antigua GFC | 66.9% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Malacateco | 11.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.7% |
| No | 61.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Antigua GFC win | 42.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.5% | |
| Loss | 32.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-0 | 14.9% | |
| 1-1 | 10.3% |
Antigua GFC vs Malacateco stats
Antigua GFC and Malacateco recent form
| Antigua GFC |
WWLWDW |
| Malacateco |
LLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Antigua GFC and Malacateco season so far
Antigua GFC record
- They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malacateco record
- They have won 5 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 17 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Antigua GFC vs Malacateco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Malacateco | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-20 | Antigua GFC | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Malacateco | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Antigua GFC | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Malacateco | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-10 | Malacateco | Antigua GFC | Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-06 | Antigua GFC | Malacateco | Liga Nacional | 2-3 |
| 2024-09-15 | Antigua GFC | Malacateco | Liga Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-23 | Malacateco | Antigua GFC | Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2023-11-02 | Antigua GFC | Malacateco | Liga Nacional | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Antigua GFC vs Malacateco odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.7%, draw 21.5%, away 11.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 4.25 | 8.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 4.25 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.40 | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.31 | 4.25 | 8.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38 | 4.45 | 7.47 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.00 | 8.00 |