Suduva Marijampole
vs
Panevėžys
2 – 0 Full time
Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys
| Probability | Suduva Marijampole | Draw | Panevėžys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.4% | 19.6% | 8.0% |
| Market | 62.1% | 22.9% | 15.0% |
| Final | 64.6% | 22.1% | 13.3% |
| Edge | +10.3% | -3.3% | -7.0% |
Why Suduva Marijampole
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Suduva Marijampole below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys attack and defence ratings
Suduva Marijampole
Panevėžys
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys: result vs prediction
Suduva Marijampole 2 – 0 Panevėžys
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suduva Marijampole | 64.6% | 1.55 | +10.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Suduva Marijampole win | 48.2% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suduva Marijampole | 64.6% |
| Draw | 22.1% | |
| Panevėžys | 13.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.3% |
| No | 60.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Suduva Marijampole win | 48.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 27.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 15.2% |
| 1-0 | 13.5% | |
| 3-0 | 10.7% |
Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys stats
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys recent form
| Suduva Marijampole |
WWWDWW |
| Panevėžys |
LWDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys going into this match
Suduva Marijampole record
- They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Panevėžys record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Panevėžys | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Suduva Marijampole | Panevėžys | A Lyga | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Panevėžys | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Suduva Marijampole | Panevėžys | A Lyga | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-07 | Panevėžys | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-04 | Suduva Marijampole | Panevėžys | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Panevėžys | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.1%, draw 22.9%, away 15.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.44 | 4.05 | 6.24 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 3.75 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 3.80 | 5.90 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.49 | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.43 | 4.05 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 4.31 | 6.17 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 3.76 | 5.32 |
| Superbet | 1.41 | 4.35 | 6.50 |
| Unibet | 1.48 | 3.75 | 5.20 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.80 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .