Šiauliai
vs
Suduva Marijampole
1 – 2 Full time
Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole
| Probability | Šiauliai | Draw | Suduva Marijampole |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 5.6% | 13.5% | 80.9% |
| Market | 19.7% | 23.9% | 56.4% |
| Final | 16.1% | 21.3% | 62.5% |
| Edge | -14.1% | -10.4% | +24.5% |
Why Suduva Marijampole
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Suduva Marijampole below the model: +24.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Šiauliai and Suduva Marijampole expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.43
Šiauliai and Suduva Marijampole attack and defence ratings
Šiauliai
Suduva Marijampole
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole: result vs prediction
Šiauliai 1 – 2 Suduva Marijampole
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suduva Marijampole | 62.5% | 1.60 | +24.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Suduva Marijampole win | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Šiauliai | 16.1% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| Suduva Marijampole | 62.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.5% |
| No | 54.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 37.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Suduva Marijampole win | 61.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 19.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.5% |
| 0-3 | 11.6% | |
| 0-1 | 8.4% |
Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole stats
Šiauliai and Suduva Marijampole recent form
| Šiauliai |
LWLLLL |
| Suduva Marijampole |
WWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Šiauliai and Suduva Marijampole going into this match
Šiauliai record
- They have won 4 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
Suduva Marijampole record
- They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Suduva Marijampole | Šiauliai | A Lyga | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Šiauliai | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Suduva Marijampole | Šiauliai | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Suduva Marijampole | Šiauliai | A Lyga | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-25 | Šiauliai | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-25 | Šiauliai | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-19 | Suduva Marijampole | Šiauliai | A Lyga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.7%, draw 23.9%, away 56.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.73 | 3.85 | 1.61 |
| Unibet | 4.40 | 3.65 | 1.57 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .