Garuda Lions
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A Lyga · Full time ·Matchday 30

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai

1 – 0 Full time

39′P. Bosancic
41′A. Baftalovskyi
45′K. Gustas
63′P. GolubickasD. Sesplaukis
64′A. BaftalovskyiA. Valuckas
75′I. LytvynenkoM. Capan
75′K. UpstasG. Jarusevicius
78′K. GustasK. Kersys
78′D. DovydaitisG. Micevicius
82′N. MihajlovicS. Mamatsashvili
82′N. PetkovicL. Antal
90′D. Koy Lupano

LFF stadionas, VilniusReferee: K. Drungilas

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 74%
Draw 16%
Šiauliai 10%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFK Zalgiris VilniusDrawŠiauliai
Model70.2%15.7%14.1%
Market75.2%15.7%9.1%
Final74.0%15.7%10.3%
Edge-5.1%+0.0%+5.0%

Confidence: Low

Why FK Zalgiris Vilnius

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.07 vs 1.40.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FK Zalgiris Vi ↓ / Šiauliai → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 8% 3 8% 4+ 9% 13% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 82%
No goals 2%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Šiauliai expected goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3.07
Šiauliai 1.40

Total expected goals: 4.46

FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Šiauliai attack and defence ratings

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 1.41 +41%

Šiauliai

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 1.60 +60%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai: result vs prediction

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1 – 0 Šiauliai

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

A Lyga

Before and after this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 74.0% 1.35 -5.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82.3% 1.22 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.4% 1.38 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 89.7% 1.12 — —
Handicap -1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 52.0% 1.92 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FK Zalgiris Vilnius74.0%
Draw15.7%
Šiauliai10.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.582.3%
Under 2.517.7%
Both teams to scoreYes72.4%
No27.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)89.7%
12 (either side)84.3%
X2 (draw or away)26.0%
Handicap -1FK Zalgiris Vilnius win52.0%
Push (exactly one goal)18.4%
Loss29.6%
Correct score (top 3)3-17.7%
2-17.6%
4-15.9%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai stats

FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Šiauliai recent form

newest first
FK Zalgiris Vilnius LWLLLW
Šiauliai LLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Šiauliai going into this match

league record before kick-off

FK Zalgiris Vilnius record

  • They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).

Šiauliai record

  • They have won 4 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins 2Draws 1Šiauliai wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-05ŠiauliaiFK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga0-3
2026-05-06FK Zalgiris VilniusŠiauliaiA Lyga3-1
2026-03-07ŠiauliaiFK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga0-2
2026-01-31FK Zalgiris VilniusŠiauliaiFriendlies Clubs4-2
2025-10-26FK Zalgiris VilniusŠiauliaiA Lyga1-0
2025-08-11ŠiauliaiFK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga2-2
2025-06-13FK Zalgiris VilniusŠiauliaiA Lyga0-0
2025-04-12ŠiauliaiFK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga2-0
2024-11-06FK Zalgiris VilniusŠiauliaiA Lyga3-1
2024-10-04ŠiauliaiFK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 73.0%, draw 16.6%, away 10.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.20 5.95 10.20
Bet365 1.22 5.25 9.00
BetVictor 1.18 4.60 7.50
Betano 1.31 4.90 7.00
Betfair 1.25 5.50 8.00
Dafabet 1.29 5.20 7.40
Marathonbet 1.19 5.95 9.80
Pinnacle 1.19 6.44 11.54
Unibet 1.27 4.80 6.75
William Hill 1.22 5.50 10.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.19 ▼ -0.04
X 5.72 ▲ +0.22
2 9.90 ▲ +1.72

9 snapshots recorded, from .