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A Lyga · Full time ·Matchday 30

Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys

1 – 3 Full time

9′V. PaulauskasK. Asamoah
39′I. Asante
46′RichardS. Oum Gouet
51′A. Harouna
57′K. Asamoah
59′M. RemeikisD. Pasilys
59′A. ShchedryiE. Kausinis
59′D. KazlauskasD. Slendzoka
66′A. Harouna
70′I. AsanteE. Veliulis
70′S. KouadioN. Petkevicius
80′WesleyA. Kaulinis
85′PanevėžysS. Kerkez
85′D. BalsysJ. Bopesu

Raudondvario stadionas, RaudondvarioReferee: D. Rumsas

Hegelmann Litauen 34%
Draw 29%
Panevėžys 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHegelmann LitauenDrawPanevėžys
Model28.3%28.1%43.6%
Market35.7%28.7%35.6%
Final33.9%28.6%37.6%
Edge-7.4%-0.6%+8.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Panevėžys

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.16.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Panevėžys below the model: +8.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Hegelmann Lita ↓ / Panevėžys → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 8% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys expected goals

Hegelmann Litauen 1.16
Panevėžys 1.49

Total expected goals: 2.66

Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys attack and defence ratings

Hegelmann Litauen

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Panevėžys

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys: result vs prediction

Hegelmann Litauen 1 – 3 Panevėžys

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

A Lyga

Before and after this match

Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Panevėžys 37.6% 2.66 +8.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.4% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.5% 1.83 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.4% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.4% 1.77 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Hegelmann Litauen33.9%
Draw28.6%
Panevėžys37.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%
Both teams to scoreYes54.5%
No45.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.4%
12 (either side)71.4%
X2 (draw or away)66.1%
Handicap -1Panevėžys win22.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.4%
Loss56.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
0-19.3%
1-29.1%

Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys stats

Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys recent form

newest first
Hegelmann Litauen DDLLLW
Panevėžys WWLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hegelmann Litauen and Panevėžys going into this match

league record before kick-off

Hegelmann Litauen record

  • They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Panevėžys record

  • They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Hegelmann Litauen wins 3Draws 2Panevėžys wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-04PanevėžysHegelmann LitauenA Lyga1-1
2026-05-06Hegelmann LitauenPanevėžysA Lyga3-2
2026-03-07PanevėžysHegelmann LitauenA Lyga1-1
2025-09-28PanevėžysHegelmann LitauenCup1-0
2025-09-21PanevėžysHegelmann LitauenA Lyga0-1
2025-08-17Hegelmann LitauenPanevėžysA Lyga3-1
2025-05-10PanevėžysHegelmann LitauenA Lyga3-0
2025-03-09Hegelmann LitauenPanevėžysA Lyga2-1
2024-09-22Hegelmann LitauenPanevėžysA Lyga2-2
2024-07-04PanevėžysHegelmann LitauenA Lyga0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.5%, draw 28.4%, away 35.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.51 3.12 2.54
Bet365 2.45 3.40 2.45
BetVictor 2.30 2.90 2.38
Betano 2.42 3.15 2.65
Betfair 2.40 3.30 2.55
Marathonbet 2.51 3.12 2.54
Pinnacle 2.60 3.17 2.64
Unibet 2.06 3.15 3.00
William Hill 2.60 2.90 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.51 ▲ +0.13
X 3.12 ▼ -0.19
2 2.52 ▼ -0.06

9 snapshots recorded, from .