A Lyga
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
TransINVEST Vilnius
vs
Suduva Marijampole
1 – 2 Full time
| 19′ | R. Sveikauskas | ||
| 59′ | Xabi Auzmendi | ||
| 65′ | F. TangiriT. Lucky | ||
| 65′ | M. ChajiaF. Steponavicius | ||
| 66′ | H. TanakaE. Kloniunas | ||
| 70′ | Z. Baltrunas | ||
| 71′ | R. GrigalavaM. Mikulenas | ||
| 71′ | I. SeckT. Milasius | ||
| 81′ | S. MilosevicY. Glushach | ||
| 81′ | Xabi AuzmendiN. Akosah-Bempah | ||
| 82′ | S. M. SanokhoD. Antanavicius | ||
| 90′ | T. Lucky | ||
| 90′ | A. Sabo |
TransINVEST Vilnius
26%
Draw
28%
Suduva Marijampole
45%
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole overview
Garuda Lions analysis: TransINVEST Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole
| Probability | TransINVEST Vilnius | Draw | Suduva Marijampole |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.4% | 26.7% | 54.9% |
| Market | 29.1% | 28.9% | 42.0% |
| Final | 26.4% | 28.4% | 45.2% |
| Edge | -10.7% | -2.2% | +12.9% |
Why Suduva Marijampole
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Suduva Marijampole below the model: +12.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
73%
3+ goals
46%
No goals
9%
TransINVEST Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole expected goals
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.86
Suduva Marijampole
1.65
Total expected goals: 2.52
TransINVEST Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole attack and defence ratings
TransINVEST Vilnius
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Suduva Marijampole
Attack
1.43 +43%
Defence
0.57 -43%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole: result vs prediction
TransINVEST Vilnius 1 – 2 Suduva Marijampole
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suduva Marijampole | 45.2% | 2.21 | +12.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 26.4% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Suduva Marijampole | 45.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.9% |
| No | 52.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Suduva Marijampole win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 45.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 0-1 | 12.2% | |
| 0-2 | 11.0% |
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole stats
TransINVEST Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole recent form
| TransINVEST Vilnius |
WDLWWL |
| Suduva Marijampole |
WWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
TransINVEST Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole going into this match
TransINVEST Vilnius record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Suduva Marijampole record
- They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
1TransINVEST Vilnius wins
4Draws
4Suduva Marijampole wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Suduva Marijampole | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2026-05-06 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Suduva Marijampole | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Suduva Marijampole | TransINVEST Vilnius | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Suduva Marijampole | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga | 0-0 |
| 2024-07-20 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-24 | Suduva Marijampole | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-07 | TransINVEST Vilnius | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga | 0-2 |
| 2023-02-19 | Suduva Marijampole | TransINVEST Vilnius | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.2%, draw 28.2%, away 40.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.16 | 3.12 | 2.15 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.15 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.25 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.15 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.12 | 2.13 |
| Pinnacle | 3.21 | 3.17 | 2.22 |
| Unibet | 2.63 | 3.15 | 2.28 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.10 ▲ +0.48
X
3.12 ▼ -0.08
2
2.15 ▼ -0.21
9 snapshots recorded, from .