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A Lyga · Full time ·Matchday 29

Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2 – 0 Full time

21′D. Sesplaukis
44′S. Kouadio
46′N. PetkovicK. Upstas
46′M. CapanO. Verbickas
54′EliveltonN. Petkevicius
55′S. Kouadio
56′S. Kouadio
56′S. Kouadio
59′S. Kerkez
67′M. van den BosR. Rasimavicius
67′K. AsamoahV. Paulauskas
74′D. SesplaukisN. Mihajlovic
74′P. GolubickasL. Antal
78′S. Bilenkyi
90′E. BurdzilauskasD. Balsys
90′J. BopesuJ. Janusevskis

Aukstaitijos StadiumReferee: O. Abramavicius

Panevėžys 23%
Draw 24%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 53%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPanevėžysDrawFK Zalgiris Vilnius
Model27.1%23.7%49.2%
Market21.8%23.8%54.4%
Final23.1%23.8%53.1%
Edge+5.3%-0.1%-5.2%

Confidence: Low

Why FK Zalgiris Vilnius

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.44.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Panevėžys ↓ / FK Zalgiris Vi → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 6% 1 10% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Panevėžys and FK Zalgiris Vilnius expected goals

Panevėžys 1.44
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.98

Total expected goals: 3.42

Panevėžys and FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack and defence ratings

Panevėžys

Attack 0.71 -29%
Defence 1.08 +8%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Attack 1.51 +51%
Defence 1.41 +41%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius: result vs prediction

Panevėžys 2 – 0 FK Zalgiris Vilnius

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

A Lyga

Before and after this match

Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 53.1% 1.88 -5.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.2% 1.51 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.6% 1.50 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 76.9% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.7% 1.97 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Panevėžys23.1%
Draw23.8%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius53.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.2%
Under 2.533.8%
Both teams to scoreYes66.6%
No33.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)46.9%
12 (either side)76.2%
X2 (draw or away)76.9%
Handicap -1FK Zalgiris Vilnius win28.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.4%
Loss50.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.3%
1-29.2%
2-16.7%

Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius stats

Panevėžys and FK Zalgiris Vilnius recent form

newest first
Panevėžys LLWDDD
FK Zalgiris Vilnius WLLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Panevėžys and FK Zalgiris Vilnius going into this match

league record before kick-off

Panevėžys record

  • They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius record

  • They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).

Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

3Panevėžys wins 0Draws 4FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-16FK Zalgiris VilniusPanevėžysA Lyga3-0
2026-05-03PanevėžysFK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga2-1
2026-02-27FK Zalgiris VilniusPanevėžysA Lyga4-1
2025-11-08PanevėžysFK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga3-1
2025-08-31FK Zalgiris VilniusPanevėžysA Lyga2-1
2025-06-29PanevėžysFK Zalgiris VilniusA Lyga2-4
2025-04-25FK Zalgiris VilniusPanevėžysA Lyga2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 21.8%, draw 23.8%, away 54.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.23 3.90 1.67
Unibet 4.00 3.65 1.63

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.12 ▲ +0.12
X 3.77 ▲ +0.12
2 1.65 ▲ +0.02

4 snapshots recorded, from .