Garuda Lions
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National Division · Full time ·Matchday 7

Swift Hesperange vs Résidence Walferdange

0 – 3 Full time

38′P. Macedo
43′P. Macedo
89′L. Long

Stade Alphonse Theis, Hesperange

Swift Hesperange 11%
Draw 16%
Résidence Walferdange 73%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Swift Hesperange vs Résidence Walferdange overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Swift Hesperange vs Résidence Walferdange

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySwift HesperangeDrawRésidence Walferdange
Model9.6%15.9%74.4%
Market12.1%15.6%72.3%
Final11.5%15.7%72.9%
Edge-2.4%+0.3%+2.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Résidence Walferdange

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.73 vs 0.94.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Résidence Walferdange below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Swift Hesperan ↓ / Résidence Walf → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 10% 9% 12% 1 7% 9% 8% 11% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

Swift Hesperange and Résidence Walferdange expected goals

Swift Hesperange 0.94
Résidence Walferdange 2.73

Total expected goals: 3.67

Swift Hesperange and Résidence Walferdange attack and defence ratings

Swift Hesperange

Attack 0.60 -40%
Defence 1.78 +78%

Résidence Walferdange

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Swift Hesperange vs Résidence Walferdange: result vs prediction

Swift Hesperange 0 – 3 Résidence Walferdange

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

National Division

Before and after this match

Swift Hesperange vs Résidence Walferdange markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Résidence Walferdange 72.9% 1.37 +2.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.0% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.5% 1.74 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 88.5% 1.13 — —
Handicap -1 Résidence Walferdange win 54.5% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Swift Hesperange11.5%
Draw15.7%
Résidence Walferdange72.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.0%
Under 2.529.0%
Both teams to scoreYes57.5%
No42.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)27.1%
12 (either side)84.3%
X2 (draw or away)88.5%
Handicap -1Résidence Walferdange win54.5%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss25.6%
Correct score (top 3)0-29.5%
1-28.9%
0-38.7%

Swift Hesperange vs Résidence Walferdange stats

Swift Hesperange and Résidence Walferdange recent form

newest first
Swift Hesperange LLLLLL
Résidence Walferdange LWLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Swift Hesperange and Résidence Walferdange going into this match

league record before kick-off

Swift Hesperange record

  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
  • They average 0.7 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.

Résidence Walferdange record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

Swift Hesperange vs Résidence Walferdange head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Swift Hesperange vs Résidence Walferdange odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 12.1%, draw 15.6%, away 72.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 8.60 5.80 1.23
Bet365 6.25 5.25 1.30
Betano 6.40 5.00 1.33
Betfair 8.50 6.00 1.20
Marathonbet 8.30 5.80 1.22
Pinnacle 6.55 5.93 1.29
William Hill 7.50 5.00 1.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 7.50 ▲ +3.12
X 5.80 ▲ +1.52
2 1.25 ▼ -0.30

2 snapshots recorded, from .