Birkirkara
vs
Hamrun Spartans
1 – 0 Full time
Birkirkara vs Hamrun Spartans overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birkirkara vs Hamrun Spartans
| Probability | Birkirkara | Draw | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.4% | 31.7% | 22.9% |
| Market | 24.3% | 28.9% | 46.9% |
| Final | 29.5% | 29.6% | 40.9% |
| Edge | +21.2% | +2.8% | -24.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birkirkara and Hamrun Spartans expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.09
Birkirkara and Hamrun Spartans attack and defence ratings
Birkirkara
Hamrun Spartans
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Birkirkara vs Hamrun Spartans: result vs prediction
Birkirkara 1 – 0 Hamrun Spartans
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birkirkara vs Hamrun Spartans markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hamrun Spartans | 40.9% | 2.45 | -24.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birkirkara | 29.5% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Hamrun Spartans | 40.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.5% |
| No | 58.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hamrun Spartans win | 7.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.2% | |
| Loss | 77.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.4% |
| 1-1 | 14.2% | |
| 0-0 | 13.7% |
Birkirkara vs Hamrun Spartans stats
Birkirkara and Hamrun Spartans recent form
| Birkirkara |
WDDDLW |
| Hamrun Spartans |
LLDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birkirkara vs Hamrun Spartans head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Hamrun Spartans | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Hamrun Spartans | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League | 6-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Birkirkara | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birkirkara vs Hamrun Spartans odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.3%, draw 28.9%, away 46.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.86 | 3.22 | 1.88 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.10 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.10 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.10 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.80 | 3.20 | 1.99 |
| Marathonbet | 3.76 | 3.20 | 1.87 |
| Pinnacle | 3.53 | 3.26 | 1.94 |
| SBO | 3.31 | 2.80 | 1.92 |
| Superbet | 3.70 | 3.15 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 3.75 | 3.00 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .