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Malta Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana

1 – 1 Full time

Tony Bezzina Stadium, PaolaReferee: A. Johnson

Hamrun Spartans 33%
Draw 29%
Floriana 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHamrun SpartansDrawFloriana
Model32.6%28.9%38.5%
Market———
Final32.6%28.9%38.5%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Floriana

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Hamrun Spartan ↓ / Floriana → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 9% 7% 1 8% 14% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Hamrun Spartans and Floriana expected goals

Hamrun Spartans 1.23
Floriana 1.36

Total expected goals: 2.58

Hamrun Spartans and Floriana attack and defence ratings

Hamrun Spartans

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Floriana

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana: result vs prediction

Hamrun Spartans 1 – 1 Floriana

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Malta Premier League

Before and after this match

Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Floriana 38.5% 2.60 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.3% 1.91 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.7% 1.86 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.1% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.3% 1.63 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Hamrun Spartans32.6%
Draw28.9%
Floriana38.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.7%
Under 2.552.3%
Both teams to scoreYes53.7%
No46.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.5%
12 (either side)71.1%
X2 (draw or away)67.4%
Handicap -1Floriana win18.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss61.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.8%
0-19.0%
0-08.8%

Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana stats

Hamrun Spartans and Floriana recent form

newest first
Hamrun Spartans LLLDWL
Floriana WWLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Hamrun Spartans wins 5Draws 0Floriana wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-25FlorianaHamrun SpartansMalta Premier League1-4
2026-03-01Hamrun SpartansFlorianaMalta Premier League1-1
2026-01-07FlorianaHamrun SpartansMalta Premier League0-2
2025-10-29FlorianaHamrun SpartansMalta Premier League1-3
2025-05-05FlorianaHamrun SpartansPremier League0-0
2025-04-21FlorianaHamrun SpartansPremier League0-0
2025-01-25FlorianaHamrun SpartansPremier League0-0
2024-12-08FlorianaHamrun SpartansPremier League1-2
2024-08-24Hamrun SpartansFlorianaPremier League1-1
2024-04-27FlorianaHamrun SpartansPremier League0-5

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hamrun Spartans vs Floriana odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.