Malta Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 3
Balzan FC
vs
Gzira United
2 – 1 Full time
Balzan FC
60%
Draw
26%
Gzira United
14%
Balzan FC vs Gzira United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Balzan FC vs Gzira United
| Probability | Balzan FC | Draw | Gzira United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.1% | 26.1% | 13.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 60.1% | 26.1% | 13.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Balzan FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.68.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
69%
3+ goals
41%
No goals
11%
Balzan FC and Gzira United expected goals
Balzan FC
1.66
Gzira United
0.68
Total expected goals: 2.34
Balzan FC and Gzira United attack and defence ratings
Balzan FC
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.06 +6%
Gzira United
Attack
0.57 -43%
Defence
1.26 +26%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Balzan FC vs Gzira United: result vs prediction
Balzan FC 2 – 1 Gzira United
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Balzan FC vs Gzira United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Balzan FC | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.2% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.0% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Balzan FC | 60.1% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Gzira United | 13.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Balzan FC win | 34.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 40.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.9% |
| 2-0 | 13.3% | |
| 1-1 | 11.9% |
Balzan FC vs Gzira United stats
Balzan FC and Gzira United recent form
| Balzan FC |
LD |
| Gzira United |
LLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.