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Malta Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Valletta FC vs Marsaxlokk

1 – 2 Full time

Centenary StadiumReferee: F. Zammit

Valletta FC 44%
Draw 27%
Marsaxlokk 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Valletta FC vs Marsaxlokk overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Valletta FC vs Marsaxlokk

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityValletta FCDrawMarsaxlokk
Model43.8%27.4%28.9%
Market———
Final43.8%27.4%28.9%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Valletta FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.23.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Valletta FC ↓ / Marsaxlokk → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 8% 13% 7% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Valletta FC and Marsaxlokk expected goals

Valletta FC 1.55
Marsaxlokk 1.23

Total expected goals: 2.78

Valletta FC and Marsaxlokk attack and defence ratings

Valletta FC

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Marsaxlokk

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Valletta FC vs Marsaxlokk: result vs prediction

Valletta FC 1 – 2 Marsaxlokk

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Malta Premier League

Before and after this match

Valletta FC vs Marsaxlokk markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Valletta FC 43.8% 2.29 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.6% 1.90 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.9% 1.76 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.6% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.3% 1.78 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Valletta FC43.8%
Draw27.4%
Marsaxlokk28.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%
Both teams to scoreYes56.9%
No43.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.1%
12 (either side)72.6%
X2 (draw or away)56.2%
Handicap -1Valletta FC win22.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.1%
Loss56.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.0%
2-19.2%
1-08.5%

Valletta FC vs Marsaxlokk stats

Valletta FC and Marsaxlokk recent form

newest first
Valletta FC WWLLLD
Marsaxlokk WDLLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Valletta FC vs Marsaxlokk head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Valletta FC wins 2Draws 2Marsaxlokk wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-26MarsaxlokkValletta FCMalta Premier League1-0
2026-03-14MarsaxlokkValletta FCMalta Premier League1-1
2025-12-20Valletta FCMarsaxlokkMalta Premier League1-0
2025-09-12Valletta FCMarsaxlokkMalta Premier League3-1
2025-07-26Valletta FCMarsaxlokkFriendlies Clubs2-0
2024-02-25Valletta FCMarsaxlokkPremier League0-2
2023-10-22MarsaxlokkValletta FCPremier League0-1
2023-04-20Valletta FCMarsaxlokkPremier League1-1
2022-12-11MarsaxlokkValletta FCPremier League1-2
2022-04-16MarsaxlokkValletta FCFA Trophy0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Valletta FC vs Marsaxlokk odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.