Marsaxlokk
vs
Mosta
1 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | Pedro Cacho | ||
| 11′ | R. Linden | ||
| 15′ | Pedro CachoE. Ugwu | ||
| 55′ | K. Zammit | ||
| 64′ | J. Minala | ||
| 72′ | E. Pepe | ||
| 73′ | DodoS. Smajlagic | ||
| 73′ | R. LindenR. Mihana | ||
| 73′ | M. GarciaD. Simkus | ||
| 74′ | N. PortelliP. Ohaka | ||
| 74′ | O. EzejioforE. Ebere | ||
| 74′ | G. AcheampongE. Agyiri | ||
| 84′ | U. AriasE. Attard | ||
| 84′ | N. MuscatL. Caruana | ||
| 90′ | MostaWanderson Gotinha |
Marsaxlokk vs Mosta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Marsaxlokk vs Mosta
| Probability | Marsaxlokk | Draw | Mosta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.9% | 29.9% | 33.2% |
| Market | 53.7% | 26.1% | 20.3% |
| Final | 49.5% | 27.0% | 23.5% |
| Edge | -16.7% | +3.8% | +12.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Marsaxlokk and Mosta expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Marsaxlokk and Mosta attack and defence ratings
Marsaxlokk
Mosta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Marsaxlokk vs Mosta: result vs prediction
Marsaxlokk 1 – 1 Mosta
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Marsaxlokk vs Mosta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marsaxlokk | 49.5% | 2.02 | -16.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marsaxlokk | 49.5% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Mosta | 23.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marsaxlokk win | 17.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 62.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.9% | |
| 1-0 | 9.6% |
Marsaxlokk vs Mosta stats
Marsaxlokk and Mosta recent form
| Marsaxlokk |
WWDLLL |
| Mosta |
WWWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Marsaxlokk vs Mosta head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Mosta | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-17 | Marsaxlokk | Mosta | Malta Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-04 | Mosta | Marsaxlokk | Premier League | 0-4 |
| 2025-02-14 | Mosta | Marsaxlokk | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-11 | Marsaxlokk | Mosta | FA Trophy | 0-3 |
| 2024-09-23 | Marsaxlokk | Mosta | Premier League | 2-4 |
| 2024-03-03 | Marsaxlokk | Mosta | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-28 | Mosta | Marsaxlokk | Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2023-01-08 | Mosta | Marsaxlokk | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-27 | Marsaxlokk | Mosta | Premier League | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Marsaxlokk vs Mosta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.7%, draw 26.1%, away 20.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.63 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.42 | 4.49 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .