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Malta Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 5

Marsaxlokk vs Floriana

2 – 5 Full time

9′R. Linden
22′F. Varela
32′M. Garcia
37′U. Arias
46′R. MuricS. Odey
53′M. BeermanD. Vella
53′A. C. N DriY. Jbira
57′A. DrinaKauan
58′J. Minala
61′C. Zammit Lonardelli
65′U. AriasD. Simkus
71′R. LindenS. Smajlagic
71′DodoR. Mihana
75′Y. Jbira
78′J. Minala
80′N. MuscatL. Caruana
80′M. GarciaT. Caruana
84′S. Smajlagic
88′T. GudeljD. Attard

Referee: D. Portelli

Marsaxlokk 39%
Draw 29%
Floriana 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Marsaxlokk vs Floriana overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Marsaxlokk vs Floriana

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMarsaxlokkDrawFloriana
Model30.1%28.0%41.9%
Market42.1%28.9%29.0%
Final39.1%28.6%32.2%
Edge-12.1%-0.8%+12.9%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Marsaxlokk ↓ / Floriana → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Marsaxlokk and Floriana expected goals

Marsaxlokk 1.22
Floriana 1.48

Total expected goals: 2.70

Marsaxlokk and Floriana attack and defence ratings

Marsaxlokk

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Floriana

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Marsaxlokk vs Floriana: result vs prediction

Marsaxlokk 2 – 5 Floriana

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Malta Premier League

Before and after this match

Marsaxlokk vs Floriana markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Marsaxlokk 39.1% 2.56 -12.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.5% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.6% 1.80 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.4% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.0% 1.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Marsaxlokk39.1%
Draw28.6%
Floriana32.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%
Both teams to scoreYes55.6%
No44.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.8%
12 (either side)71.4%
X2 (draw or away)60.9%
Handicap -1Marsaxlokk win13.1%
Push (exactly one goal)17.0%
Loss70.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-29.0%
0-18.8%

Marsaxlokk vs Floriana stats

Marsaxlokk and Floriana recent form

newest first
Marsaxlokk DWWDLL
Floriana WDWWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Marsaxlokk vs Floriana head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Marsaxlokk wins 2Draws 7Floriana wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-16FlorianaMarsaxlokkMalta Premier League2-1
2026-04-15MarsaxlokkFlorianaMalta Premier League1-3
2026-02-18FlorianaMarsaxlokkMalta Premier League0-0
2026-01-03FlorianaMarsaxlokkFA Trophy1-0
2025-11-23FlorianaMarsaxlokkMalta Premier League2-1
2025-09-20MarsaxlokkFlorianaMalta Premier League1-2
2025-04-12FlorianaMarsaxlokkPremier League2-1
2025-02-09FlorianaMarsaxlokkPremier League2-1
2024-10-21MarsaxlokkFlorianaPremier League1-1
2024-04-20MarsaxlokkFlorianaPremier League1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Marsaxlokk vs Floriana odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.1%, draw 28.9%, away 29.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.15 3.10 3.19
Bet365 2.15 3.25 3.00
BetVictor 2.15 3.25 3.13
Betano 2.18 3.15 3.20
Betfair 2.10 3.25 3.10
Marathonbet 2.13 3.10 3.12
Pinnacle 2.13 3.13 3.16
William Hill 2.20 2.90 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.15 ▲ +0.02
X 3.14 ▼ -0.03
2 3.12 ▼ -0.03

3 snapshots recorded, from .