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Malta Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 5

Sliema Wanderers vs Mosta

1 – 3 Full time

16′Gustavo Alcino
19′N. Karelis
46′E. AgyiriO. Ezejiofor
46′N. FrendoP. Ohaka
60′Giancarlo
64′W. M. AlliA. Limbombe
64′S. PisaniM. Lorenzi
64′C. OderindeE. Ebere
77′T. TeumaB. Gambarte
87′O. EzejioforWanderson Gotinha
90′N. KarelisA. Overend
90′I. Cojocaru
90′B. Gambarte

Tony Bezzina Stadium, PaolaReferee: E. Grech

Sliema Wanderers 24%
Draw 26%
Mosta 51%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Sliema Wanderers vs Mosta overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sliema Wanderers vs Mosta

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySliema WanderersDrawMosta
Model33.5%30.9%35.6%
Market20.5%24.0%55.5%
Final23.7%25.7%50.6%
Edge+13.1%+6.9%-20.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Mosta

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sliema Wandere ↓ / Mosta → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 10% 1 10% 15% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

Sliema Wanderers and Mosta expected goals

Sliema Wanderers 1.13
Mosta 1.18

Total expected goals: 2.31

Sliema Wanderers and Mosta attack and defence ratings

Sliema Wanderers

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Mosta

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sliema Wanderers vs Mosta: result vs prediction

Sliema Wanderers 1 – 3 Mosta

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Malta Premier League

Before and after this match

Sliema Wanderers vs Mosta markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mosta 50.6% 1.98 -20.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 59.2% 1.69 — —
Both teams to score No 51.7% 1.94 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 76.3% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.4% 1.55 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sliema Wanderers23.7%
Draw25.7%
Mosta50.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540.8%
Under 2.559.2%
Both teams to scoreYes48.3%
No51.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)49.4%
12 (either side)74.3%
X2 (draw or away)76.3%
Handicap -1Mosta win15.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss64.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.6%
0-011.2%
0-110.3%

Sliema Wanderers vs Mosta stats

Sliema Wanderers and Mosta recent form

newest first
Sliema Wanderers WWLLLD
Mosta DWWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sliema Wanderers vs Mosta head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Sliema Wanderers wins 3Draws 1Mosta wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19MostaSliema WanderersMalta Premier League2-2
2026-02-08MostaSliema WanderersMalta Premier League0-1
2025-08-22Sliema WanderersMostaMalta Premier League0-1
2025-04-30MostaSliema WanderersPremier League1-4
2025-01-25MostaSliema WanderersPremier League0-1
2024-12-21Sliema WanderersMostaPremier League3-1
2024-08-16Sliema WanderersMostaPremier League2-0
2024-03-30MostaSliema WanderersFA Trophy2-2
2024-02-10Sliema WanderersMostaPremier League0-0
2023-09-27MostaSliema WanderersPremier League0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sliema Wanderers vs Mosta odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 20.5%, draw 24.0%, away 55.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.58 3.82 1.61
Bet365 3.70 3.70 1.75
BetVictor 4.80 3.75 1.62
Pinnacle 4.30 3.88 1.62
William Hill 4.40 3.50 1.67

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.40 ▲ +0.47
X 3.75 ▲ +0.24
2 1.62 ▼ -0.13

2 snapshots recorded, from .