Malta Premier League · 2026-10-09T18:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 7

Mosta vs Birzebbuga

2 – 2 Full time

15′			J. A. Bolanos Ramirez
35′			K. Zammit
35′			Alex Bruno
45′			Yuri
46′			E. AgyiriWanderson Gotinha
52′			Giancarlo
57′			Pedro Cacho
66′			J. A. Bolanos Ramirez
67′			R. ThellufsenL. Riascos
67′			S. DimechK. Bondin
73′			Giancarlo
76′			Giancarlo
76′			Giancarlo
81′			N. Portelli
83′			G. AcheampongR. Debono
83′			N. FrendoB. Farrugia
90′			J. MendozaP. Tomaselli
90′			G. Costa GoncalvesS. Tokic
90′			Wanderson GotinhaP. Ohaka

Victor Tedesco Stadium, HamrunReferee: I. Barbara

Mosta

41%

Draw

26%

Birzebbuga

33%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Mosta vs Birzebbuga overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mosta vs Birzebbuga

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Mosta	Draw	Birzebbuga
Model	70.0%	20.1%	10.0%
Market	31.4%	27.4%	41.1%
Final	41.1%	25.6%	33.3%
Edge	+9.6%	-1.8%	-7.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Mosta

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.62.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Mosta below our published probability: +9.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

93%

2+ goals

77%

3+ goals

52%

No goals

Mosta and Birzebbuga expected goals

Mosta

2.12

Birzebbuga

0.62

Total expected goals: 2.75

Mosta and Birzebbuga attack and defence ratings

Mosta

Attack

1.04 +4%

Defence

1.03 +3%

Birzebbuga

Attack

0.52 -48%

Defence

1.47 +47%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Mosta vs Birzebbuga: result vs prediction

Mosta 2 – 2 Birzebbuga

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Malta Premier League

Birkirkara vs Valletta FC — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Marsaxlokk v Zabbar St. Patrick — match page · 2026-10-10
Floriana vs Balzan FC · 2026-10-11
Hamrun Spartans vs Hibernians · 2026-10-11
Sliema Wanderers v Gzira United — match page · 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

Mosta, previous: Mosta v Sliema Wanderers analysis
Mosta, next: Gzira United vs Mosta: odds and pick
Birzebbuga, previous: Birzebbuga v Valletta FC analysis
Birzebbuga, next: Hibernians vs Birzebbuga: odds and pick

Mosta vs Birzebbuga markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Mosta	41.1%	2.44	+9.6%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54.4%	1.84	—	—
Both teams to score	No	54.5%	1.84	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.4%	1.34	—	—
Handicap -1	Mosta win	47.4%	2.11	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Mosta	41.1%
	Draw	25.6%
	Birzebbuga	33.3%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54.4%
	Under 2.5	45.6%
Both teams to score	Yes	45.5%
	No	54.5%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	66.7%
	12 (either side)	74.4%
	X2 (draw or away)	58.9%
Handicap -1	Mosta win	47.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	24.0%
	Loss	28.6%
Correct score (top 3)	2-0	13.3%
	1-0	11.5%
	3-0	9.6%

Mosta vs Birzebbuga stats

Mosta and Birzebbuga recent form

newest first

Mosta	LDWWWW
Birzebbuga	LLLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Mosta and Birzebbuga going into this match

league record before kick-off

Mosta record

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Birzebbuga record

They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.

Mosta vs Birzebbuga head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Mosta wins 0Draws 1Birzebbuga wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-07-17	Mosta	Birzebbuga	Friendlies Clubs	0-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Mosta vs Birzebbuga odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.4%, draw 27.4%, away 41.1%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.93	3.26	2.17
Bet365	2.35	3.30	2.55
BetVictor	2.90	3.40	2.20
Betano	2.15	3.55	2.95
Betfair	2.30	3.20	2.80
Dafabet	3.00	3.55	2.16
Marathonbet	2.85	3.26	2.15
Pinnacle	2.90	3.40	2.15
William Hill	2.88	3.10	2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.88 ▲ +0.01

X 3.30 —

2 2.20 ▼ -0.05

2 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-09T08:10:02Z.