Mosta
vs
Birzebbuga
2 – 2 Full time
Mosta vs Birzebbuga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mosta vs Birzebbuga
| Probability | Mosta | Draw | Birzebbuga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.0% | 20.1% | 10.0% |
| Market | 31.4% | 27.4% | 41.1% |
| Final | 41.1% | 25.6% | 33.3% |
| Edge | +38.5% | -7.3% | -31.2% |
Why Mosta
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mosta below the model: +38.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mosta and Birzebbuga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Mosta and Birzebbuga attack and defence ratings
Mosta
Birzebbuga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mosta vs Birzebbuga: result vs prediction
Mosta 2 – 2 Birzebbuga
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mosta vs Birzebbuga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mosta | 41.1% | 2.44 | +38.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Mosta win | 46.4% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mosta | 41.1% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Birzebbuga | 33.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.5% |
| No | 54.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mosta win | 46.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 30.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 3-0 | 9.6% |
Mosta vs Birzebbuga stats
Mosta and Birzebbuga recent form
| Mosta |
WDWWWW |
| Birzebbuga |
LWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mosta and Birzebbuga going into this match
Mosta record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Birzebbuga record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.
Mosta vs Birzebbuga head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Mosta | Birzebbuga | Friendlies Clubs | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mosta vs Birzebbuga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.4%, draw 27.4%, away 41.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.93 | 3.26 | 2.17 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.55 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.16 |
| Marathonbet | 2.85 | 3.26 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .