Mosta
vs
Gzira United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mosta
2 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Mosta vs Gzira United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mosta vs Gzira United
| Probability | Mosta | Draw | Gzira United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.3% | 19.4% | 8.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 72.3% | 19.4% | 8.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mosta
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Mosta vs Gzira United match preview
Mosta will host Gzira United in the Malta Premier League on October 14, 2026. Mosta enters the match with strong recent form, recording five consecutive wins and a draw, while Gzira United has struggled significantly, failing to win in their last six matches, with four losses. The model suggests a 48% probability of a Mosta victory, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0.
In terms of scoring, Mosta has an expected goals tally of 2.16, indicating a strong attacking performance, while Gzira United's expected goals stand at just 0.61. The probability of over 2.5 goals in the match is 53%, and both teams to score is at 41%. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Gzira United has dominated with seven wins compared to Mosta's two victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mosta and Gzira United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Mosta and Gzira United attack and defence ratings
Mosta
Gzira United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mosta vs Gzira United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mosta | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.7% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Mosta win | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mosta | 72.3% |
| Draw | 19.4% | |
| Gzira United | 8.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.3% |
| No | 58.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mosta win | 49.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 27.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.7% | |
| 3-0 | 10.5% |
Mosta vs Gzira United stats
Mosta and Gzira United recent form
| Mosta |
DWDWWW |
| Gzira United |
DLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mosta and Gzira United season so far
Mosta record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Gzira United record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Mosta vs Gzira United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Gzira United | Mosta | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-03 | Gzira United | Mosta | FA Trophy | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Gzira United | Mosta | Malta Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Gzira United | Mosta | Malta Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Mosta | Gzira United | Malta Premier League | 3-4 |
| 2025-07-18 | Mosta | Gzira United | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2025-01-04 | Mosta | Gzira United | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-29 | Gzira United | Mosta | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-17 | Gzira United | Mosta | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-26 | Mosta | Gzira United | Premier League | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mosta vs Gzira United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.8%, draw 27.1%, away 33.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 3.32 | 2.73 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.25 | 3.32 | 2.66 |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 3.42 | 2.66 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .