Floriana
vs
Mosta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Floriana
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Floriana vs Mosta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Floriana vs Mosta
| Probability | Floriana | Draw | Mosta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.8% | 23.2% | 24.0% |
| Market | 54.7% | 24.5% | 20.8% |
| Final | 54.2% | 24.2% | 21.6% |
| Edge | -1.8% | -1.3% | +3.2% |
Why Floriana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Floriana vs Mosta match preview
Floriana and Mosta are set to clash in the Malta Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Floriana has a 39% chance of winning, while Mosta's chances stand at 36%, with a 24% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Floriana, occurring at an 8% likelihood. Both teams have shown strong attacking potential, with expected goals of 1.74 for Floriana and 1.67 for Mosta.
In terms of recent form, Floriana has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Mosta remains in good shape with four wins and one draw in their last five outings. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 66%, and both teams scoring is projected at 68%. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Floriana has secured two victories against Mosta, who has yet to win.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Floriana and Mosta expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.39
Floriana and Mosta attack and defence ratings
Floriana
Mosta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Floriana vs Mosta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Floriana | 54.2% | 1.84 | -1.8% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Floriana | 54.2% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Mosta | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.2% |
| No | 34.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Floriana win | 31.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
Floriana vs Mosta stats
Floriana and Mosta recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Floriana and Mosta season so far
Floriana record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Mosta record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Floriana vs Mosta head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Floriana | Mosta | Malta Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Mosta | Floriana | Malta Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-27 | Floriana | Mosta | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-05 | Floriana | Mosta | FA Trophy | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Floriana | Mosta | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-11-23 | Floriana | Mosta | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-11 | Mosta | Floriana | Friendlies Clubs | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-03 | Mosta | Floriana | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-04-13 | Floriana | Mosta | Premier League | 4-0 |
| 2023-12-09 | Mosta | Floriana | Premier League | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Floriana vs Mosta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.0%, draw 24.4%, away 20.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.68 | 4.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.61 | 3.75 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 3.68 | 4.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .