Mosta
vs
Valletta FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Valletta FC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Mosta vs Valletta FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mosta vs Valletta FC
| Probability | Mosta | Draw | Valletta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.8% | 26.6% | 40.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.8% | 26.6% | 40.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Valletta FC
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Mosta vs Valletta FC match preview
Mosta faces Valletta FC in the Malta Premier League, with the model giving Mosta a 34% chance of winning, while Valletta FC has a 40% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. The model suggests a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood that both teams will score. Expected goals are calculated at 1.41 for Mosta and 1.54 for Valletta FC.
In terms of recent form, Mosta has recorded two draws, one loss, and two wins in their last five matches, while Valletta FC has achieved four wins and one loss in the same period. Historically, Valletta FC has dominated the recent head-to-head encounters, winning both of the last two matches against Mosta. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mosta and Valletta FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Mosta and Valletta FC attack and defence ratings
Mosta
Valletta FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mosta vs Valletta FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valletta FC | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mosta | 32.8% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Valletta FC | 40.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% |
| No | 39.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Valletta FC win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 59.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
Mosta vs Valletta FC stats
Mosta and Valletta FC recent form
| Mosta |
DDLDWW |
| Valletta FC |
WWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mosta and Valletta FC season so far
Mosta record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Valletta FC record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Mosta vs Valletta FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Mosta | Valletta FC | Malta Premier League | 0-5 |
| 2025-09-24 | Valletta FC | Mosta | Malta Premier League | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.