Mosta
vs
Hibernians
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hibernians
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hibernians is the favourite, not a value bet.
Mosta vs Hibernians overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mosta vs Hibernians
| Probability | Mosta | Draw | Hibernians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.1% | 27.5% | 27.4% |
| Market | 28.1% | 26.4% | 45.5% |
| Final | 32.4% | 26.7% | 41.0% |
| Edge | +4.3% | +0.3% | -4.5% |
Why Hibernians
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.2% per unit staked (our 41.0% × 2.02 − 1).
Mosta vs Hibernians match preview
Mosta faces Hibernians in the Malta Premier League, with the model indicating a 45% probability of a Mosta victory, while Hibernians have a 27% chance. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Mosta, occurring with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for Mosta stand at 1.56, compared to Hibernians' 1.17, suggesting a competitive match.
Recent form shows Mosta struggling with a record of L-D-D-D-L-D, while Hibernians have fared slightly better with W-W-D-L-D-L. In their last four encounters, Mosta has secured 1 win, 1 draw, and Hibernians has claimed 2 victories. The model also indicates a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mosta and Hibernians expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Mosta and Hibernians attack and defence ratings
Mosta
Hibernians
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mosta vs Hibernians markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hibernians | 41.0% | 2.44 | -4.5% | 2.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mosta | 32.4% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Hibernians | 41.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% |
| No | 44.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hibernians win | 11.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.9% | |
| Loss | 72.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
Mosta vs Hibernians stats
Mosta and Hibernians recent form
| Mosta |
LDDDLD |
| Hibernians |
WWDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mosta and Hibernians season so far
Mosta record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Hibernians record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mosta vs Hibernians head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Hibernians | Mosta | Malta Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Hibernians | Mosta | Malta Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Hibernians | Mosta | Malta Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-17 | Mosta | Hibernians | Malta Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-23 | Hibernians | Mosta | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-12-07 | Hibernians | Mosta | Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2024-10-19 | Mosta | Hibernians | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-07-19 | Hibernians | Mosta | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-21 | Mosta | Hibernians | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2023-12-17 | Hibernians | Mosta | Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mosta vs Hibernians odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.1%, draw 26.4%, away 45.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.23 | 3.40 | 1.98 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.45 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.35 | 3.60 | 1.99 |
| Marathonbet | 3.15 | 3.40 | 1.96 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .