Sliema Wanderers
vs
Marsaxlokk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Marsaxlokk
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk
| Probability | Sliema Wanderers | Draw | Marsaxlokk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.7% | 27.9% | 37.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 34.7% | 27.9% | 37.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Marsaxlokk
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk match preview
Sliema Wanderers face Marsaxlokk in the Malta Premier League, with both teams showing mixed recent form. Sliema's last five matches include two draws and three wins, while Marsaxlokk has recorded three wins, one loss, and one draw in their last five outings. The probabilities from our model suggest a close contest, with Sliema Wanderers at 35%, a draw at 28%, and Marsaxlokk slightly favored at 37%.
The expected goals indicate a competitive match, with Sliema Wanderers at 1.35 and Marsaxlokk at 1.41. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of Marsaxlokk, occurring with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sliema Wanderers and Marsaxlokk expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Sliema Wanderers and Marsaxlokk attack and defence ratings
Sliema Wanderers
Marsaxlokk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marsaxlokk | 37.5% | 2.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sliema Wanderers | 34.7% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Marsaxlokk | 37.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% |
| No | 42.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marsaxlokk win | 18.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 62.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk stats
Sliema Wanderers and Marsaxlokk recent form
| Sliema Wanderers |
LDDWWW |
| Marsaxlokk |
WWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sliema Wanderers and Marsaxlokk season so far
Sliema Wanderers record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Marsaxlokk record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sliema Wanderers vs Marsaxlokk head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Marsaxlokk | Sliema Wanderers | Malta Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-06 | Sliema Wanderers | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Sliema Wanderers | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.