Gzira United
vs
Marsaxlokk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Marsaxlokk
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk
| Probability | Gzira United | Draw | Marsaxlokk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.3% | 26.8% | 47.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 26.3% | 26.8% | 47.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Marsaxlokk
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk match preview
Gzira United faces Marsaxlokk in the Malta Premier League with kickoff set for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Gzira United has a 26% chance of winning, while Marsaxlokk stands at 47%, with a 27% probability of a draw. The expected goals for Gzira United is 1.18, compared to Marsaxlokk's 1.64. Recent form shows Gzira United struggling with five winless matches, while Marsaxlokk has alternated between wins and losses.
In their last three encounters, Gzira United has secured one victory, while Marsaxlokk has won twice. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 53% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gzira United and Marsaxlokk expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
Gzira United and Marsaxlokk attack and defence ratings
Gzira United
Marsaxlokk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marsaxlokk | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gzira United | 26.3% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Marsaxlokk | 47.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marsaxlokk win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-1 | 8.7% |
Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk stats
Gzira United and Marsaxlokk recent form
| Gzira United |
LDDDDL |
| Marsaxlokk |
LLWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gzira United and Marsaxlokk season so far
Gzira United record
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marsaxlokk record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gzira United vs Marsaxlokk head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Marsaxlokk | Gzira United | Malta Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Gzira United | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Marsaxlokk | Gzira United | Malta Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.