Gzira United
vs
Birzebbuga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gzira United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Gzira United is the favourite, not a value bet.
Gzira United vs Birzebbuga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gzira United vs Birzebbuga
| Probability | Gzira United | Draw | Birzebbuga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.6% | 30.9% | 29.5% |
| Market | 36.8% | 27.8% | 35.4% |
| Final | 37.5% | 28.5% | 33.9% |
| Edge | +0.7% | +0.8% | -1.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (our 37.5% × 2.50 − 1).
Gzira United vs Birzebbuga match preview
Gzira United faces Birzebbuga in the Malta Premier League, with Gzira United holding a 48% probability of winning, while Birzebbuga stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Gzira United, with a 14% likelihood. The expected goals for Gzira United are 1.38, compared to Birzebbuga's 0.84, indicating a stronger offensive outlook for Gzira.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Gzira United recording four draws and two losses in their last six matches, while Birzebbuga has lost all six of their recent games. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and a 44% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gzira United and Birzebbuga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.29
Gzira United and Birzebbuga attack and defence ratings
Gzira United
Birzebbuga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gzira United vs Birzebbuga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gzira United | 37.5% | 2.66 | +0.7% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gzira United | 37.5% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Birzebbuga | 33.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.5% |
| No | 52.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gzira United win | 18.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 60.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 11.4% | |
| 1-0 | 11.3% |
Gzira United vs Birzebbuga stats
Gzira United and Birzebbuga recent form
| Gzira United |
LDDDDL |
| Birzebbuga |
WLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gzira United and Birzebbuga season so far
Gzira United record
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birzebbuga record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
Gzira United vs Birzebbuga head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Gzira United vs Birzebbuga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.8%, draw 27.8%, away 35.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.24 | 2.47 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.35 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.49 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.24 | 2.47 |
| Pinnacle | 2.43 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .