Valletta FC
vs
Hamrun Spartans
Garuda Lions Prediction: Valletta FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.19.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans
| Probability | Valletta FC | Draw | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.3% | 25.0% | 23.6% |
| Market | 37.5% | 29.7% | 32.8% |
| Final | 41.0% | 28.6% | 30.5% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -1.2% | -2.3% |
Why Valletta FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Valletta FC below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.4% per unit staked (our 41.0% × 2.55 − 1).
Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans match preview
Valletta FC faces Hamrun Spartans in a Malta Premier League clash, with the model assigning a 41% probability of a Valletta victory, compared to 30% for Hamrun and a 29% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Valletta, with an expected goals tally of 1.83 for Valletta and 1.19 for Hamrun.
Both teams have shown solid recent form, with Valletta recording four wins and one draw in their last six matches, while Hamrun has three draws and three wins in the same period. Historical head-to-head results favor Hamrun, who have won five of the last ten encounters, while Valletta has secured two victories and there have been three draws. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Valletta FC and Hamrun Spartans expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Valletta FC and Hamrun Spartans attack and defence ratings
Valletta FC
Hamrun Spartans
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valletta FC | 41.0% | 2.44 | +3.5% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.7% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valletta FC | 41.0% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Hamrun Spartans | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% |
| No | 40.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Valletta FC win | 29.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 48.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans stats
Valletta FC and Hamrun Spartans recent form
| Valletta FC |
WWWWDW |
| Hamrun Spartans |
DDDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Valletta FC and Hamrun Spartans season so far
Valletta FC record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hamrun Spartans record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Valletta FC | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Valletta FC | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Valletta FC | Hamrun Spartans | FA Trophy | 3-1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Valletta FC | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Hamrun Spartans | Valletta FC | Malta Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Hamrun Spartans | Valletta FC | Malta Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-02 | Hamrun Spartans | Valletta FC | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-28 | Valletta FC | Hamrun Spartans | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-02-15 | Valletta FC | Hamrun Spartans | FA Trophy | 1-2 |
| 2023-02-11 | Hamrun Spartans | Valletta FC | Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Valletta FC vs Hamrun Spartans odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.5%, draw 29.7%, away 32.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 2.98 | 2.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.13 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.15 | 2.77 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.25 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.05 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.40 | 2.98 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.44 | 2.99 | 2.77 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 2.88 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .