Balzan FC
vs
Birkirkara
Garuda Lions Prediction: Birkirkara
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Birkirkara is the favourite, not a value bet.
Balzan FC vs Birkirkara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Balzan FC vs Birkirkara
| Probability | Balzan FC | Draw | Birkirkara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.0% | 33.1% | 24.9% |
| Market | 30.1% | 29.4% | 40.5% |
| Final | 33.1% | 30.3% | 36.6% |
| Edge | +3.0% | +0.9% | -3.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -16.2% per unit staked (our 36.6% × 2.29 − 1).
Balzan FC vs Birkirkara match preview
Balzan FC faces Birkirkara in the Malta Premier League, with kickoff set for October 25, 2026. The probabilities from our model indicate a competitive match, with Balzan FC at 33%, a draw at 30%, and Birkirkara slightly favored at 37%. The expected goals suggest Balzan FC might score 1.15 while Birkirkara is projected at 0.82. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 0-1, occurring with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Balzan FC has recorded four draws and a win in their last five matches, while Birkirkara has two losses, a win, and two draws in the same period. The head-to-head statistics show Balzan FC with 2 wins, 3 draws, and Birkirkara leading with 5 wins in their last 10 encounters. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 32%, and both teams to score is at 40%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Balzan FC and Birkirkara expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.97
Balzan FC and Birkirkara attack and defence ratings
Balzan FC
Birkirkara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Balzan FC vs Birkirkara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birkirkara | 36.6% | 2.73 | -3.9% | 2.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Balzan FC | 33.1% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Birkirkara | 36.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.7% |
| No | 60.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birkirkara win | 8.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.5% | |
| Loss | 75.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.2% |
| 1-0 | 14.6% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Balzan FC vs Birkirkara stats
Balzan FC and Birkirkara recent form
| Balzan FC |
DLDDDW |
| Birkirkara |
DLLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Balzan FC and Birkirkara season so far
Balzan FC record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Birkirkara record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Balzan FC vs Birkirkara head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Birkirkara | Balzan FC | FA Trophy | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-06 | Birkirkara | Balzan FC | Premier League | 5-2 |
| 2024-08-16 | Balzan FC | Birkirkara | Premier League | 3-3 |
| 2024-03-02 | Birkirkara | Balzan FC | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-29 | Balzan FC | Birkirkara | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2023-04-21 | Balzan FC | Birkirkara | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-02-15 | Balzan FC | Birkirkara | FA Trophy | 2-2 |
| 2022-12-10 | Birkirkara | Balzan FC | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-06 | Birkirkara | Balzan FC | Friendlies Clubs | 0-3 |
| 2022-01-19 | Birkirkara | Balzan FC | Premier League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Balzan FC vs Birkirkara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.1%, draw 29.4%, away 40.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.03 | 3.08 | 2.20 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.13 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.10 | 2.27 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.29 |
| Marathonbet | 2.95 | 3.08 | 2.18 |
| Pinnacle | 3.06 | 3.01 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .