Hamrun Spartans
vs
Balzan FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hamrun Spartans
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC
| Probability | Hamrun Spartans | Draw | Balzan FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.0% | 28.2% | 27.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.0% | 28.2% | 27.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Hamrun Spartans
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC match preview
Hamrun Spartans are set to face Balzan FC in the Malta Premier League, with a kickoff scheduled for October 21, 2026. According to our model, Hamrun Spartans have a 44% probability of winning, while both a draw and a Balzan FC victory are each at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Hamrun Spartans, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Hamrun Spartans stand at 1.48, compared to Balzan FC's 1.14.
In terms of recent form, Hamrun Spartans have recorded a mixed set of results with draws and wins, while Balzan FC has also seen a series of draws followed by a win and a loss. Our model indicates a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability that both teams will score in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hamrun Spartans and Balzan FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.63
Hamrun Spartans and Balzan FC attack and defence ratings
Hamrun Spartans
Balzan FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hamrun Spartans | 44.0% | 2.27 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hamrun Spartans | 44.0% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Balzan FC | 27.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hamrun Spartans win | 22.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 56.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Hamrun Spartans vs Balzan FC stats
Hamrun Spartans and Balzan FC recent form
| Hamrun Spartans |
DWWWDL |
| Balzan FC |
DDDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hamrun Spartans and Balzan FC season so far
Hamrun Spartans record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Balzan FC record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).