Birkirkara
vs
Floriana
Garuda Lions Prediction: Floriana
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Birkirkara vs Floriana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birkirkara vs Floriana
| Probability | Birkirkara | Draw | Floriana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.7% | 28.9% | 43.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.7% | 28.9% | 43.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Floriana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Birkirkara vs Floriana match preview
Birkirkara will face Floriana in the Malta Premier League, with the match kicking off on October 22, 2026. According to our model, Birkirkara has a 33% chance of winning, while Floriana is favored at 38%, with a 30% probability of a draw. The expected goals for Birkirkara stand at 1.18, compared to Floriana's 1.28. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%.
In terms of recent form, Birkirkara has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Floriana has been more consistent, with three wins in their last six outings. The head-to-head record shows Birkirkara has not won against Floriana in their last three encounters, with two wins for Floriana and one draw. The likelihood of both teams scoring is estimated at 51%, and there is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birkirkara and Floriana expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Birkirkara and Floriana attack and defence ratings
Birkirkara
Floriana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birkirkara vs Floriana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Floriana | 43.4% | 2.31 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birkirkara | 27.7% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Floriana | 43.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% |
| No | 48.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Floriana win | 21.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 56.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
Birkirkara vs Floriana stats
Birkirkara and Floriana recent form
| Birkirkara |
LLWDLL |
| Floriana |
DWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birkirkara and Floriana season so far
Birkirkara record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Floriana record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Birkirkara vs Floriana head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Birkirkara | Floriana | Malta Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Floriana | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Floriana | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.