Birkirkara
vs
Marsaxlokk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Marsaxlokk
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk
| Probability | Birkirkara | Draw | Marsaxlokk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.8% | 29.8% | 36.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 33.8% | 29.8% | 36.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Marsaxlokk
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birkirkara and Marsaxlokk expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.46
Birkirkara and Marsaxlokk attack and defence ratings
Birkirkara
Marsaxlokk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marsaxlokk | 36.3% | 2.75 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.2% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birkirkara | 33.8% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Marsaxlokk | 36.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% |
| No | 48.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marsaxlokk win | 16.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 63.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.9% | |
| 0-1 | 9.5% |
Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk stats
Birkirkara and Marsaxlokk recent form
| Birkirkara |
LDLLWW |
| Marsaxlokk |
WLDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birkirkara and Marsaxlokk season so far
Birkirkara record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marsaxlokk record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Birkirkara | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Marsaxlokk | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Marsaxlokk | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.