Marsaxlokk
vs
Birkirkara
2 – 0 Full time
| 25′ | M. Garcia | ||
| 29′ | Fernandinho | ||
| 36′ | A. Garzia | ||
| 54′ | M. Garcia | ||
| 61′ | Fernandinho | ||
| 61′ | Fernandinho | ||
| 71′ | U. Arias | ||
| 73′ | L. PahamaF. Sasere | ||
| 73′ | A. GarziaJefferson Vinicius | ||
| 76′ | R. LindenS. Smajlagic | ||
| 76′ | U. AriasD. Simkus | ||
| 79′ | FrazanRafa Santos | ||
| 82′ | M. GarciaL. Caruana | ||
| 87′ | J. MinalaWeder | ||
| 87′ | J. C. CorbalanE. Attard | ||
| 90′ | S. BrewerJ. Busuttil |
Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara
| Probability | Marsaxlokk | Draw | Birkirkara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.0% | 29.9% | 30.1% |
| Market | 34.7% | 28.2% | 37.1% |
| Final | 36.0% | 28.6% | 35.4% |
| Edge | +1.3% | +0.4% | -1.8% |
Why Marsaxlokk
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Marsaxlokk and Birkirkara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Marsaxlokk and Birkirkara attack and defence ratings
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara: result vs prediction
Marsaxlokk 2 – 0 Birkirkara
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marsaxlokk | 36.0% | 2.78 | +1.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marsaxlokk | 36.0% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Birkirkara | 35.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% |
| No | 49.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marsaxlokk win | 18.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 60.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | |
| 0-0 | 10.2% |
Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara stats
Marsaxlokk and Birkirkara recent form
| Marsaxlokk |
WLWDWW |
| Birkirkara |
LWDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Marsaxlokk and Birkirkara going into this match
Marsaxlokk record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birkirkara record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Birkirkara | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Marsaxlokk | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Marsaxlokk | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-27 | Birkirkara | Marsaxlokk | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Birkirkara | Marsaxlokk | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-29 | Marsaxlokk | Birkirkara | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-03-09 | Marsaxlokk | Birkirkara | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2023-11-04 | Birkirkara | Marsaxlokk | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2023-04-30 | Birkirkara | Marsaxlokk | FA Trophy | 2-0 |
| 2023-03-05 | Birkirkara | Marsaxlokk | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.3%, draw 28.0%, away 37.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.18 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 3.18 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.22 | 2.43 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .