Hibernians
vs
Birzebbuga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hibernians
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Hibernians vs Birzebbuga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hibernians vs Birzebbuga
| Probability | Hibernians | Draw | Birzebbuga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.1% | 27.9% | 21.0% |
| Market | 47.4% | 25.4% | 27.3% |
| Final | 48.3% | 26.0% | 25.7% |
| Edge | +3.7% | +2.6% | -6.3% |
Why Hibernians
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.91.
- The market prices Hibernians below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Hibernians vs Birzebbuga match preview
Hibernians enter the match against Birzebbuga with a probability of 51% to win, while a draw stands at 28% and a victory for Birzebbuga at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.55 for Hibernians and 0.92 for Birzebbuga.
In terms of recent form, Hibernians have recorded a series of mixed results, with their last five matches yielding three draws and two losses. Birzebbuga's form is concerning, as they have not won in their last six matches, resulting in five losses and one draw. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 45%, while both teams scoring is assessed at 49%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hibernians and Birzebbuga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Hibernians and Birzebbuga attack and defence ratings
Hibernians
Birzebbuga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hibernians vs Birzebbuga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hibernians | 48.3% | 2.07 | +3.7% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hibernians | 48.3% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Birzebbuga | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.5% |
| No | 51.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hibernians win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 2-0 | 10.2% |
Hibernians vs Birzebbuga stats
Hibernians and Birzebbuga recent form
| Hibernians |
DLDLDL |
| Birzebbuga |
DLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hibernians and Birzebbuga season so far
Hibernians record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Birzebbuga record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Hibernians vs Birzebbuga head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Hibernians vs Birzebbuga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.8%, draw 25.0%, away 27.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.55 | 3.32 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.70 | 3.95 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.55 | 3.24 |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 3.73 | 3.06 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .