Hibernians
vs
Hamrun Spartans
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hibernians
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans
| Probability | Hibernians | Draw | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.3% | 26.6% | 20.1% |
| Market | 58.5% | 22.7% | 18.9% |
| Final | 57.2% | 23.6% | 19.2% |
| Edge | -5.1% | +3.9% | +1.2% |
Why Hibernians
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans match preview
Hibernians are set to face Hamrun Spartans in the Malta Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model gives Hibernians a 53% chance of victory, while Hamrun Spartans have a 20% probability of winning, and a draw stands at 27%. The expected goals for Hibernians is 1.68 compared to Hamrun Spartans' 0.95, suggesting a potential edge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Hibernians have recorded a win, followed by two draws and two losses, while Hamrun Spartans have struggled with two losses, a win, a draw, and two more losses. Historically, in their last two encounters, Hamrun Spartans have won both matches against Hibernians, indicating a competitive rivalry. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Hibernians.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hibernians and Hamrun Spartans expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.62
Hibernians and Hamrun Spartans attack and defence ratings
Hibernians
Hamrun Spartans
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hibernians | 57.2% | 1.75 | -5.1% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hibernians | 57.2% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Hamrun Spartans | 19.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.9% |
| No | 49.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hibernians win | 29.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 46.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 2-0 | 10.2% |
Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans stats
Hibernians and Hamrun Spartans recent form
| Hibernians |
WDLDLW |
| Hamrun Spartans |
LLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hibernians and Hamrun Spartans season so far
Hibernians record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Hamrun Spartans record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | Hibernians | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Hamrun Spartans | Hibernians | Malta Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hibernians vs Hamrun Spartans odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.5%, draw 22.7%, away 18.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 3.90 | 4.81 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 3.95 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.55 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .