Birkirkara
vs
Valletta FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Valletta FC
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Birkirkara vs Valletta FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birkirkara vs Valletta FC
| Probability | Birkirkara | Draw | Valletta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 30.9% | 40.3% |
| Market | 30.3% | 28.4% | 41.3% |
| Final | 29.9% | 29.0% | 41.1% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +2.5% | -1.0% |
Why Valletta FC
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Birkirkara vs Valletta FC match preview
Birkirkara faces Valletta FC in the Malta Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 29% probability of a Birkirkara victory, while Valletta FC stands at 40%, and a draw is estimated at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 12% probability. Expected goals suggest Birkirkara will score 1.02, compared to Valletta FC's 1.25.
In terms of recent form, Birkirkara has recorded one win, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches, while Valletta FC has performed slightly better with three wins, one loss, and one draw in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters shows one win for each side and one draw, indicating a competitive matchup. The probabilities are based solely on the model's analysis.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birkirkara and Valletta FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.27
Birkirkara and Valletta FC attack and defence ratings
Birkirkara
Valletta FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birkirkara vs Valletta FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valletta FC | 41.1% | 2.44 | -1.0% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birkirkara | 29.9% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Valletta FC | 41.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.0% |
| No | 53.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Valletta FC win | 18.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 59.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 11.6% | |
| 0-1 | 11.6% |
Birkirkara vs Valletta FC stats
Birkirkara and Valletta FC recent form
| Birkirkara |
LDLLWW |
| Valletta FC |
WDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birkirkara and Valletta FC season so far
Birkirkara record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valletta FC record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birkirkara vs Valletta FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Valletta FC | Birkirkara | FA Trophy | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Birkirkara | Valletta FC | Malta Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-07 | Valletta FC | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Valletta FC | Birkirkara | Malta Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-05 | Birkirkara | Valletta FC | FA Trophy | 3-1 |
| 2024-02-09 | Valletta FC | Birkirkara | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-27 | Birkirkara | Valletta FC | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-05 | Valletta FC | Birkirkara | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-02 | Birkirkara | Valletta FC | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2022-03-12 | Birkirkara | Valletta FC | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birkirkara vs Valletta FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.3%, draw 28.4%, away 41.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.97 | 3.20 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.13 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.25 | 2.24 |
| Marathonbet | 2.89 | 3.20 | 2.16 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .