Zabbar St. Patrick
vs
Marsaxlokk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Zabbar St. Patrick
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk
| Probability | Zabbar St. Patrick | Draw | Marsaxlokk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.0% | 24.3% | 26.8% |
| Market | 50.3% | 25.9% | 23.9% |
| Final | 49.9% | 25.5% | 24.6% |
| Edge | -1.3% | -1.6% | +2.9% |
Why Zabbar St. Patrick
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.37.
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk match preview
Zabbar St. Patrick will face Marsaxlokk in the Malta Premier League on October 10, 2026. The model gives Zabbar St. Patrick a 49% chance of winning, with a 24% probability for a draw and a 27% chance for Marsaxlokk. The expected goals for Zabbar St. Patrick stand at 1.90, while Marsaxlokk is projected to score 1.37. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Zabbar St. Patrick, with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Zabbar St. Patrick has recorded a W-D-L-D-W-L sequence, while Marsaxlokk has a W-L-D-W-W-D record. Historically, in their last two encounters, Marsaxlokk has won both matches against Zabbar St. Patrick, with no wins or draws for the latter. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 64%, and both teams scoring is at 65%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk attack and defence ratings
Zabbar St. Patrick
Marsaxlokk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 49.9% | 2.00 | -1.3% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 49.9% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Marsaxlokk | 24.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% |
| No | 35.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Zabbar St. Patrick win | 28.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 51.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.8% |
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk stats
Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk recent form
| Zabbar St. Patrick |
WDLDWL |
| Marsaxlokk |
WLDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk season so far
Zabbar St. Patrick record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marsaxlokk record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Marsaxlokk | Zabbar St. Patrick | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Marsaxlokk | Malta Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-29 | Marsaxlokk | Zabbar St. Patrick | Malta Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Marsaxlokk | Zabbar St. Patrick | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2025-01-19 | Marsaxlokk | Zabbar St. Patrick | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2024-12-22 | Marsaxlokk | Zabbar St. Patrick | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-10-02 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Marsaxlokk | Premier League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.3%, draw 25.9%, away 23.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.80 | 3.46 | 3.78 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.84 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 3.46 | 3.68 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .