Gzira United
vs
Hamrun Spartans
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hamrun Spartans
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans
| Probability | Gzira United | Draw | Hamrun Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.0% | 25.5% | 58.5% |
| Market | 11.9% | 20.0% | 68.1% |
| Final | 12.9% | 21.4% | 65.7% |
| Edge | +4.1% | +5.5% | -9.6% |
Why Hamrun Spartans
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans match preview
Gzira United faces Hamrun Spartans in the Malta Premier League, with Gzira United holding a 28% probability of winning, while Hamrun Spartans have a 42% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability. Gzira United's expected goals stand at 1.04, compared to Hamrun Spartans' 1.33.
In terms of recent form, Gzira United has struggled with six matches without a win, recording four losses and two draws. Conversely, Hamrun Spartans have shown some resilience, with one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches. The probability of both teams scoring is at 49%, while there is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gzira United and Hamrun Spartans expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Gzira United and Hamrun Spartans attack and defence ratings
Gzira United
Hamrun Spartans
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hamrun Spartans | 65.7% | 1.52 | -9.6% | 1.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.1% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gzira United | 12.9% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Hamrun Spartans | 65.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.9% |
| No | 53.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 34.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hamrun Spartans win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 41.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-1 | 12.1% | |
| 0-2 | 11.8% |
Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans stats
Gzira United and Hamrun Spartans recent form
| Gzira United |
DDDLLL |
| Hamrun Spartans |
DWWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gzira United and Hamrun Spartans season so far
Gzira United record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hamrun Spartans record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Hamrun Spartans | Gzira United | Malta Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-03 | Gzira United | Hamrun Spartans | Malta Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Hamrun Spartans | Gzira United | Malta Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Hamrun Spartans | Gzira United | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-11-07 | Gzira United | Hamrun Spartans | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-13 | Gzira United | Hamrun Spartans | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-13 | Hamrun Spartans | Gzira United | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-03-11 | Hamrun Spartans | Gzira United | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-30 | Gzira United | Hamrun Spartans | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2022-04-24 | Hamrun Spartans | Gzira United | Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.0%, draw 20.4%, away 67.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.70 | 4.50 | 1.32 |
| Bet365 | 7.50 | 4.33 | 1.33 |
| BetVictor | 8.00 | 4.50 | 1.33 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.47 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 4.10 | 1.46 |
| Marathonbet | 7.30 | 4.50 | 1.31 |
| Pinnacle | 7.65 | 4.63 | 1.32 |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 4.33 | 1.35 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .