Floriana
vs
Zabbar St. Patrick
Garuda Lions Prediction: Floriana
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.38.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Floriana is the favourite, not a value bet.
Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick
| Probability | Floriana | Draw | Zabbar St. Patrick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.3% | 20.5% | 20.2% |
| Market | 59.3% | 23.0% | 17.7% |
| Final | 59.3% | 22.3% | 18.4% |
| Edge | -0.0% | -0.6% | +0.6% |
Why Floriana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (our 59.3% × 1.55 − 1).
Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick match preview
Floriana enters this match with a 58% probability of winning, while Zabbar St. Patrick has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Floriana, with a 9% likelihood. The expectation for over 2.5 goals stands at 69%, and both teams scoring is projected at 66%. Expected goals for Floriana are 2.25, compared to 1.29 for Zabbar St. Patrick.
In terms of recent form, Floriana has recorded two draws followed by a win, a loss, and another draw, while Zabbar St. Patrick's recent matches show one win, two losses, and two draws. Historically, Floriana has a strong advantage in their last two encounters, winning both without any draws or losses for Zabbar St. Patrick. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Floriana and Zabbar St. Patrick expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.77
Floriana and Zabbar St. Patrick attack and defence ratings
Floriana
Zabbar St. Patrick
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Floriana | 59.3% | 1.69 | -0.0% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.7% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Floriana | 59.3% |
| Draw | 22.3% | |
| Zabbar St. Patrick | 18.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% |
| No | 31.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Floriana win | 38.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 40.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 8.4% | |
| 3-1 | 7.3% |
Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick stats
Floriana and Zabbar St. Patrick recent form
| Floriana |
DDDWLW |
| Zabbar St. Patrick |
LWLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Floriana and Zabbar St. Patrick season so far
Floriana record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Zabbar St. Patrick record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Floriana | Malta Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2026-01-28 | Floriana | Zabbar St. Patrick | FA Trophy | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Floriana | Zabbar St. Patrick | Malta Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-02-02 | Floriana | Zabbar St. Patrick | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-28 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Floriana | Premier League | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Floriana vs Zabbar St. Patrick odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.3%, draw 23.0%, away 17.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 3.88 | 5.28 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 3.88 | 5.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .