Zabbar St. Patrick
vs
Mosta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Zabbar St. Patrick
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta
| Probability | Zabbar St. Patrick | Draw | Mosta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.3% | 25.6% | 33.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.3% | 25.6% | 33.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Zabbar St. Patrick
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta match preview
Zabbar St. Patrick hosts Mosta in a match where the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter. Zabbar St. Patrick has a 41% chance of winning, while Mosta stands at 33%, with a 26% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals indicate a slight advantage for Zabbar St. Patrick at 1.67 compared to Mosta's 1.48. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Zabbar St. Patrick.
Both teams have struggled for form recently, with Zabbar St. Patrick recording one win in their last six matches, while Mosta has also found it difficult, managing only one win in their last six games. Historical head-to-head results show a balanced rivalry, with each team winning once and two matches ending in draws over the last four encounters. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 64%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zabbar St. Patrick and Mosta expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.15
Zabbar St. Patrick and Mosta attack and defence ratings
Zabbar St. Patrick
Mosta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 41.3% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Mosta | 33.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% |
| No | 36.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Zabbar St. Patrick win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 58.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta stats
Zabbar St. Patrick and Mosta recent form
| Zabbar St. Patrick |
LWLLDL |
| Mosta |
LDDDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zabbar St. Patrick and Mosta season so far
Zabbar St. Patrick record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mosta record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Zabbar St. Patrick vs Mosta head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Mosta | Zabbar St. Patrick | Malta Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Zabbar St. Patrick | Mosta | Malta Premier League | 5-3 |
| 2025-12-12 | Mosta | Zabbar St. Patrick | Malta Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Mosta | Zabbar St. Patrick | Malta Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.